I'm curious to learn how the imposition of 5 per cent VAT from New Years' Day will affect the cost of living in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. I can't say I know what will happen in Saudi, since I have not lived there, but it won't be easy in Dubai. The governments have talked about introducing VAT for some years (Indeed, I wrote in July how the governments have been talking about introducing VAT for the past 10 years) but the fall in oil prices has meant that talk has now become reality.

 In Dubai, the cost of living is already expensive, especially rent and food. When it comes to utilities like electricity, the fee (bill) can vary widely from month-to-month and it doesn’t appear to be rooted in reality. When 5 per cent VAT is imposed, what will this mean for the actual bill? Of course, the higher the bill, the higher the VAT that will be imposed.

 I might be sceptical, but that sceptism is rooted in reality.

 I found this article about VAT, which does explain it all.

By ASSOCIATED PRESS and IAIN BURNS FOR MAILONLINE

Sexual harassment is becoming increasingly real. Just look at #metoo to see how many woman have been affected.

A few years ago I was working in the City of London and I went to see a lawyer. Why? Because i was being paid less than a man for exctly the same work.

I was told by the lawyer that although i has a definite case if I proceeded, I would never get a job in the City again.

This article is the first in a two-part series that explores some of the issues surrounding sexual harassment.

The year was 1980.  It was my first job in private industry and I was working in a division of a company that would later become part of what is now Verizon.  To make a long story short, I was asked to develop a communications program in response to an issue of sexual harassment of a female employee in our southern Georgia division location.  The president of the division said he never wanted what happened to her to happen again.

Hospitals. They’re exhausting, probably because there are so many sick and dying people. On top of that, there’s all that equipment designed to monitor people and make them well again.

It’s because I’ve been visiting the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) at the local hospital, where it is known as the Critical Care Unit (CCU) that I haven’t written anything for a few days.

 Travelling up and down to the hospital, and sitting there for a few hours each time, three times a day is, to say the least, exhausting. It’s hard to believe that’s the case when you’re doing nothing- but all those sick and dying people sap the energy. I now believe in energy chakras.

 The surgeons, doctors and nurses are great. They seem to come from all over the world- from Scotland, India, England, the US and Saudi Arabia.

Workers’ rights in the Arab Gulf countries often come in for criticism, especially from organisations like Amnesty International and the International Labour Organisation. It’s true. The rules are abhorrent but often the criticism that is lurched at say Qatar is almost as true of the other Gulf countries.

 But with the ongoing dispute between Qatar and four other states- Saudi Arabia, UAE, Brain and Egypt- Qatar has even more interest in ridding itself of the “kafala” system. Under this system a local citizen or local company (the kafil) must sponsor foreign workers in order for their work visas and residency to be valid. This means that an individual's right to work and residence in the host country is dependent on the employer, rendering millions of workers from South Asia and elsewhere vulnerable to exploitation.

 Even though Qatar is in the line of fire, mainly because it is hosting FIFA 2022, other Gulf countries also use this system. In the UAE for example you must have a sponsor to reside in the country and you can change employer (without permission) if you are in, or are going, to a free zone. That wasn’t always the case.

 And when I was living there, the employer still took an employee’s passport; if not (as was the case with me since I refused to hand over my passport) the employer takes the employee’s ID card instead. I was also know of one person who had to finish her contract (she was Swedish) before she could leave the country. This happened in September.

 In Qatar it can be impossible to change jobs, if the current employer doesn’t allow it. I know one person- a Canadian citizen- to whom that happened. She had to flee the country. This was in 2013.

Recently I went to a talk by Dr Sandhya Ramrakha on the internationally recognised Dunedin Study- the longest multi-disciplinary, longitudinal study in the world, which is carried out by Otago University. It is known formally as the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit (DMHDRU). The study tracks the lives of about 1000 babies born in Dunedin between 1972 and 1973. Now in its 45th year, the study is ramping up, particularly as people are beginning to age.

 Since most ageing research is done on the elderly, little is known about biological aging in young humans. The study aims to fill this gap.

 “We know that the aging process starts right from the beginning of life and our people are at a critical point in their life course. They’ve now reached the point where they are starting to go down the aging pathway. We want to figure out what lies ahead, because this is one race you don’t won’t to win,” the October 17 magazine of the University of Otago states.

 This year the study has also re-introduced studies of hearing and sight, not done since childhood; muscolosketal health, including pain and body composition; dietary biomarkets; investigative oxidative stress cellular health and chronic kidney injury; and brain imaging research.

 Other aims of the study include understanding the reasons for people’s behaviour over time. It is used to inform health, education and social policy in particular. For example, it also presents new findings on domestic violence that shows that women are just as likely to commit domestic violence offences as men. http://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/news/81025573/domestic-violence-study-presents-challenging-picture

The war in Yemen wages on, seemingly without end. And if the Saudi-led coalition doesn't let humanitarian aid into the country there will be a huge famine. Saudi Arabia is fighting the Houthis, which dominates the government and is Iran backed. Saudi Arabia, which is Sunni, wants to be the dominant force in the Middle East. At the moment, it is waging a proxy war against Iran and is failing. It has not achieved the gains it hoped it would by backing the rebels in Syria; Bashir Assad, who is backed by Iran is still in power. The next country on the cards is Lebanon and in a delicately balanced government between about 14 different religions, where the Prime Minister is always a Sunni, Saudi Arabia has caused chaos by insisting that the Prime Minister, Saad Hariri, resigned. Saudi Arabia wants to wage war against Iran-back Hezbollah which certainly dominates in the South of Lebanon. (The photos are from there). This article in Arab Digest explains well what is happening in Lebanon.

Summary: resignation of Prime Minister Hariri less a Lebanese affair than part of the Saudi obsession with Iran (backed by Israel but not the US). Poor Lebanon will pay the price.

On 4 November the Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced his resignation. He made the announcement in Riyadh, saying that there were covert plans against his life. In language more characteristic of Saudi than of Lebanese politics (he is a dual Lebanese/Saudi national) he accused Iran of creating in Hizbullah a state within a state; “I say to Iran and its allies – you have lost in your efforts to meddle in the affairs of the Arab world... [the region] will rise again and the hands that you have wickedly extended into it will be cut off.” An AP report comments that “Saudi fingerprints were seen all over Hariri's resignation.”

As we commented in a posting of 3 November 2016 the Lebanese political game is played by rules laid down over seventy years ago in the National Pact. Since Ottoman times the population has consisted of a wide palette of minorities, Maronite Catholic, Greek Orthodox, Sunni Muslim, Shia Muslim, Druze, not to mention Armenians, Kurds and others. The president is a Maronite, the prime minister a Sunni, the speaker of parliament a Shia, the army commander a Druze, and so on. Minority communities include differing political or tribal elements, so that both the governments and the oppositions have been mosaic coalitions. This unique system has given Lebanon prosperity and stability, interrupted from time to time by external forces and events, Palestinian (refugees in 1948, PLO from Jordan in 1970), Syrian (multiple intervention from 1976 to 2005, now 1.5 million refugees), Israeli (various wars, occupation of the mainly Shia south from 1982 to 2000).

In 2005 the long serving Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, father of Saad, was assassinated. Hizbullah was accused (not only Hizbullah), but the investigation got nowhere. After long conflict and confusion the present government under President Michel Aoun was formed a year ago. As we commented on 17 March it resulted from a deal with Hizbullah. Originally formed to resist the Israeli occupation, Hizbullah represents the Lebanese Shia community as well as being the most powerful military force in Lebanon. Supported by Iran it has played a major military role in the Syrian civil war in support of the regime.

I’ve been following the government changes in Saudi with much interest, having lived in the region and covered it journalistically for 8.5 years. It is no surprise that there are changes in the Saudi ruling family; those changes are rumoured to have been happening for years.

However, this time is different. The changes are swift and dramatic and several events have combined at the same time. While not directly linked, they could bring more instability to an already volatile region.

But whether it is a purge against corruption or a move by the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) to consolidate his power is another matter.  

First, there is the resignation of Lebanon’s Sunni Prime Minister, Saad Hariri, who is also the son of the Syrian-murdered former prime minister Rafik Hariri in 2005. Saad Hariri, who has joint Lebanese and Saudi citzenship, evidently feared for his life and had just had a meeting with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayotollah Ali Khamenei.

Evidently, he was summoned from Beirut and sacked by his Saudi “allies”. I’ve also been told by my source in Saudi Arabia that Hariri’s bodyguard was told to leave Saudi Arabia Monday night. What will happen to him?

There's been a lot of talk recently about the Balfour Declaration since November 2 was the centenary of that document.  This date was when Israel obtained land in Palestianian territory. The outcome depends on whether you are an Israeli or a Palestianian. Here 's what was written in the Arab Digest.

Summary: debate in Parliament produces nothing new. Among many comments on the centenary a new Balfour Centenary Declaration supported by MPs from all parties and many others.

As expected (our posting of 20 October) the approach to the centenary of the Balfour declaration, today 2 November 2017, has produced much comment. The British and Israeli prime ministers are expected to speak at a commemoration banquet tonight. The Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson made a statement in Parliament on 30 October which was followed by a brief debate. Emily Thornberry, Shadow Foreign Secretary, argued that “With the empty vessel that is the American President making lots of noise but being utterly directionless, the need for Britain to show leadership on this issue [Palestine] is ever more pressing”. Johnson stuck to the well worn position of using the USA as a human shield: “the US Administration have shown their commitment to breaking the deadlock, and a new American envoy, Jason Greenblatt, has made repeated visits to the region. The Government will of course support these efforts in whatever way we can… we need them to be in the lead… we see the most fertile prospects now in the new push coming from America… ”

All parties represented in Parliament are now committed to recognition of Palestine as a state except the governing Conservative party (and presumably their coalition partner the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party), whose intention is clearly to wait for America.

On 31 October a Balfour Centenary Declaration, see below, was launched in Parliament by Richard Burden MP (Labour), Lord Cope of Berkeley (Conservative), Dr Philippa Whitford MP (Scottish National party), and Rt Hon Tom Brake MP (Lib Dem), signed by over 60 distinguished people including members of Parliament from the four main parties. We are grateful to Vincent Fean, former British ambassador and former consul-general in Jerusalem, for the text from which he spoke to an audience of over 1000 at Westminster Central Hall.

There is so much happening in Saudi Arabia right now, and not just the meetings with Donald Trump and his clan. Oil, the Saudi ruling family and Islam are all showing signs of cracks. Certainly, Saudi Arabia is not how it used to be. Explaining this is Andrew Critchlow, who spent a long time in the Middle East, (when I was there). He went to the UK and was working with Thomson Reuters.

Three main pillars bind Saudi Arabia together: oil, the ruling Al Saud family and Islam. Reforms are preparing the Middle East’s largest economy for the end of a reliance on the first. But they could have a destabilising knock-on effect on the other two.

Saudi as a modern nation was founded in 1932 by a powerful regional overlord known as Ibn Saud. Since then the family has monopolised power by doling out its vast petroleum wealth in the form of handouts and preferential business deals while maintaining an uneasy pact with an ultra-conservative domestic religious establishment. But a 62 percent slide in the price of crude since 2012 has forced the kingdom to cut benefits such as energy subsidies for the average Saudi. Buying support is about to get tougher.

The radical restructuring of the economy now being managed by Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – one of Ibn Saud’s many grandsons – is ambitious and not before time. The prince, widely known as ‘MbS’, last month presented the details of his Vision 2030 and short-term National Transformation Plan, with the aim of weaning Saudi off oil, which still accounts for over 70 percent of budget revenues. But although it’s a financial necessity for Riyadh to rein in a record budget deficit, politically the strategy is risky – it could prove unpopular in poorer rural tribal areas of the desert kingdom.

That would be okay if the 1000-plus princes of the Al Saud family were a unified bunch. But they are not immune to disagreements. After the death of the incumbent King Salman bin Abdulaziz, power will pass for the first time outside the direct line of Ibn Saud’s sons, which itself implies a less harmonious succession. The sudden elevation of the 31-year-old MbS, the current king’s son, looks a threat to his cousin Mohammed bin Nayef, who as crown prince is the official heir to the throne. It could also kindle resentment among the sons of previous rulers who were passed over, including those who don’t descend from the offspring of Ibn Saud’s most influential wife, Hassa bint Ahmed al-Sudairi.

Ethiopians living in New Zealand face a number of challenges.  These will be discussed at a community meeting to be held at 474 Great North Road, Auckland. on November 4.

The guest speaker will be Mr Abebe Gellaw, an international journalist who is executive director of Ethiopian Satellite Television and Radio (ESAT TV) and will be available for interview until November 8. Please contact Nestanet Kassa  on 0278054332 or email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

Gellaw works at Stanford University where, in 2008-09, he was the John S. Knight Fellow for Professional Journalists and Yahoo International Fellow. He is a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution and visiting scholar at the Centre on Democracy Development and Rule of Law. He is working on a book project, Ethiopia under Meles: Why the transition from military rule to democracy failed.

He began his career in journalism in 1993 as a freelance writer focusing on human rights and political issues. He worked for various print and online publications including the Ethiopian Herald, the only English daily in the country. Gellaw is also a founding editor of Addisvoice.com, a bilingual online journal focusing on Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa

The meeting will present a perspective on Ethiopia different from how it is often perceived, which is of a booming economy and adventure tourism.

The Gulf Co-Operation Council (GCC) dispute over Qatar is going on and on. Neither side-  four countries- Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Egypt, versus Qatar, are willing to give in.

The dispute has certainly highlighted the issue of food security- something that GCC countries are trying to resolve by reducing their dependency on imported food. Qatar has not achieved this (no one has) and is throwing money at the problem by bringing into the country 4,000 Irish dairy cows with reportedly 10,000 more to follow. The country can then feed all its population. Is this an attempt to destroy Qatar by starvation?

There are also reports that the GCC Summit due to take place in Kuwait in December is likely to be postponed to mid 2018 and that the US is pulling out of some military exercises planned with GCC countries. Qatar has also taken formal steps in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to escalate a compliant it lodged in July against the UAE.

Also, in some comments made to Arab Digest, it seems that the GCC is now more receptive to some approaches from Israeli countries. It seems that being Israeli is no longer a hindrance to doing business in the GCC.

This is the final chapter in the forthcoming e-book which considers what will happen when the Saudi and Egyptian regimes fall and the West’s struggle against Jihad.

The Future of the Middle East

We are pleased to announce today the publication of the final chapter in our forthcoming new e-book ‘The Future of the Middle East’, co-produced by Global Policy and Arab Digest and edited by Hugh Miles and Alastair Newton.

Global Policy is an interdisciplinary peer reviewed journal and online platform which aims to bring together academics and practitioners to analyse public and private solutions to global issues. Established in 2010, Global Policy is based at Durham University and edited by David Held and Dani Rodrik.

We would like to thank again all the experts who so kindly contributed to this project and made it a success. The completed e-book will be published on October 23rd. We will provide more information about this closer to the time. Meanwhile all previous chapters are freely available here.

Dubai has hit the headlines in the British papers again, and not for a good reason. It was reported that a British guy could be jailed for indecent behaviour for maybe three years. He was in Rock Bottom bar in Tecom (where I used to live) and brushed a Jordanian man on the hips, in a bid not to spill his drink.  The Jordanian man thought his behaviour was indecent. That’s how the incident has been reported by the British media. (See article in the Daily Mail below).

In other media, notably in Dubai, it was reported that the man was drunk so when the police arrived he was arrested.

Few people, apart from those ex-pats who live there, seem to realise that it is illegal to be caught drinking outside a licensed premises such as restaurant or club. That’s why people who live in the emirate get an alcohol license, which entails getting a signature from your employer that you are allowed to drink, among other things. I never got one.

Without a license you can be arrested for drinking at home, or even for having alcohol on the premises. So, if the police found this guy drunk, or even with alcohol in his system, he would be arrested. Indecency wouldn’t even need to be considered.

British father begs people not to visit Dubai

The stories about the horrific shootings in Las Vegas, Nevada, the United States, just keep on coming. Each day there is something new. And among the reports there appears to be no attempt by officialdom to change any legislation, the most obvious being to change the gun laws. Imagine if the shooter had have been a Muslim, and thereby automatically a terrorist. All sorts of legislation would have been enacted, including expanding the Muslim immigration ban. Now the government is faced with the fact that the biggest mass shooting in American history was perpetrated by a home-grown white, male American. An ordinary bloke and a "nice" guy. No need to change any laws since this tragedy could happen anytime, anywhere. it had nothing to do with terrorism. Only 59 people were shot dead.

This opinion piece that appeared in the New York Times by Thomas L Friedman sums up the tragedy well.

If only Stephen Paddock had been a Muslim … If only he had shouted “Allahu akbar” before he opened fire on all those concertgoers in Las Vegas … If only he had been a member of ISIS … If only we had a picture of him posing with a Quran in one hand and his semiautomatic rifle in another …

If all of that had happened, no one would be telling us not to dishonor the victims and “politicize” Paddock’s mass murder by talking about preventive remedies.

No, no, no. Then we know what we’d be doing. We’d be scheduling immediate hearings in Congress about the worst domestic terrorism event since 9/11. Then Donald Trump would be tweeting every hour “I told you so,” as he does minutes after every terror attack in Europe, precisely to immediately politicize them. Then there would be immediate calls for a commission of inquiry to see what new laws we need to put in place to make sure this doesn’t happen again. Then we’d be “weighing all options” against the country of origin.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS CONFERENCE HAS BEEN POSTPONED. DATE HAS STILL TO BE ARRANGED. COMMUNITY EVENT WILL BE ON 4 NOVEMBER AR SAME LOCATION. IT WILL BE IN AMHARIC ONLY.

Ethiopia is much more than adventure tourism and tourist sights. The politics and economics of the country are fascinating too. For example, some Ethiopians who come to New Zealand as refugees are from the same tribe as the ruling party, (the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF)) and work as undercover spies, keeping tabs on Ethiopians in this country.

To keep abreast of these issues and as well as those regarding social media and telecommunications, which are prohibited in the country, a conference will be held in Auckland on October 27.

It is designed to create awareness among New Zealand officialdom of the issues affecting the Ethiopian community and allow it to share its concern with members of the local community.

The conference will be held between 9am and 11am at the University of Auckland, 74 Epsom Ave, Auckland, Room 6EA-201A.

There is a lot of excitement and talk about the lifting of the ban on women drivers in Saudi Arabia. Undeniably, it is a move in the right direction but there are a lot of changes that are needed, such as the guardianship rules. These rules mean that a woman must ask the permission of a father, a brother, or even a son, to travel, or even to work.

Also, the right for women to drive must be extended to a younger age group. Even under the new ruling, which comes into effect in June 2018 (plenty of opportunity to put more conditions in place), women under 30 are not allowed to drive, according to my friend in the port city of Jeddah.

My experience with drivers in Riyadh has not been good. It is possible for a woman to take a cab from the airport, which is driven by a man of course, and travel alone with the driver. I did it.

I also took a cab to an ATM in Riyadh, because I had to, even though it was within walking distance from the hotel.  A woman alone with an unknown male at night!

And Uber has lost its licence to operate in London, with one of the reasons cited as lack of security. In the UAE, and Iran for that matter, there are at least women taxi drivers.

The vote for Kurdistan’s, or Northern Iraq’s, independence has been fascinating. The Kurds are expecting a referendum result that overwhelmingly supports  independence- but whatever the outcome it’s unlikely that independence will be granted by the Iraqis, and Turkey, Iran and the US don’t won’t it. The Kurds might have spoken, as they have done in the past, but it makes little difference.

I spent  a few days recently with a Kurdish family in New Zealand- and they were totally passionate about Kurdish independence.

The Kurds are the largest majority in the Middle East who do not have an autonomous state; but countries are ready to use them to fight their cause. Recently,  the US armed the Kurds to fight ISIL. Will this change? These articles by the Brookings Institute in the US explains why.

Don’t underestimate Kurdistan’s resilience

By Ranj Alaaldin- Visiting Fellow - Brookings Doha Center

I've been following the Rohingya issue which is becoming increasingly complex. This time, rather than being Muslims versus the West, it is Muslims versus the Buddhists- a group we, in the West, had always been taught is tolerant and caring. Indeed, these are the reasons often cited for people transferring their religious preference from Christianity to Buddhism.

Therefore, I was keen to read this article by Lex Rieffel, non-resident senior fellow, Global Economy and Development, The Brookings Institute. Much of the world has condemned Aung San Suu Kyi, state counselor and leader of the National League for Democracy of Myanmar, for not speaking out about the Rohingya killings. Rieffel explains why.

Reporters on the scene are saying that 300,000 or more members of the Rohingya community (of Muslim faith) in Buddhist-majority Myanmar have fled across the border into Muslim-majority Bangladesh in the past two weeks. The refugees have been describing to reporters a litany of human rights abuses: homes burned, women raped, men beheaded, and more.

Editorial writers and columnists around the world have slammed Aung San Suu Kyi, state counselor and leader of the National League for Democracy of Myanmar, for allowing the atrocities to occur and have even demanded that the Nobel Committee withdraw the Peace Prize awarded to her in 1991.

As a scholar focusing on Myanmar for the past 10 years, during which I have visited the country more than a dozen times, I know how horrible the situation is. I have been to Rakhine state and have seen the Rohingya confined to a refugee camp on the outskirts of the state capital of Sittwe. At the same time, I believe that much of the media commentary is misdirected. It fails to describe the complex origins of the problem and explain how intractable it is.

Refugees are instrumental in running a hotel in Austria. Could a similar project be rolled out in New Zealand? Lucia Dore asks the CEO of Magdas Social Enterprise, Gabriela Sonnleitner, to explain how it operates.  

Magdas Hotel, in Vienna, Austria, is a hotel with a difference. Run by 20 former refugees and 11 hotel professionals, in co-operation with artists, architects and students, it aims to improve the lives of marginalised people, refugees in particular.

Sixteen countries are represented at the hotel and 26 languages are spoken. Training is done on the job and in special courses supported by professionals and volunteers.

The refugees have “regular work and that gives them security and stability in their lives. With their loan they have a secure income, can pay for a flat and other things and are no longer dependent on social welfare. They can live a self contained life,” says Magdas’ general manager, Gabriela Sonnleitner.

Even though the hotel is a social enterprise, based on the work of Nobel peace prizewinner, Muhammed Yunus, (who founded the Grameen Bank and pioneered the concepts of microcredit and microfinance) it is self-financing and all income is reinvested. It does not receive any public funding.

The deal between the New Zealand government and Saudi businessman Hmood Al Ali Al Khalaf has re-surfaced. After the report came out by the Auditor General Lyn Provost last November that there was no evidence of corruption- although there were "significant shortcomings"- it was probably assumed that the matter was all done and dusted. But it's election time so it's probably not surprising that the deal has resurfaced.