The animosity between Israelis and Palestinians is ongoing, but it is not until you’ve been do you understand how much tension there is. That’s what I think. And I’m neither Israeli nor Palestinian.

I was travelling into Palestine over the Allenby Crossing, from Jordan, with a group of Palestinians. We waited at the border crossing for about eight hours, while the Israeli guards played ball games, and played around generally.

These people were horrible to everyone, including me, until they saw I had a New Zealand passport and then they were so nice. What a change in attitude. I was told by a British lawyer that he had had a similar experience at Tel Aviv airport. Since he was English he was allowed into the country but a colleague from the same law firm- a Palestian-British man- was detained in jail overnight. Evidently, he’s had that experience many times when visiting family.

I had many experiences on that trip, one of them being witness to everyone standing up when Mahmoud Abbas took the stage. That was at a conference in Bethelem.

With this in mind, I read the article below with interest. It makes sense when I recall a Palestinian, who had been involved in peace talks, who said there would never be a negotiated peace with Israel, since the “status quo” will always be better for the Israelis.

Continuing on the “Bolton” theme I’m posting an article that appeared in Al Monitor magazine. So its not just parts of the Middle East who are worried about the impact of the appointment of John Bolton – of course the UAE and Saudi Arabia agree with the appointment- but Russia too is concerned about the consequences- that the Iran deal won’t hold and there will be war in the Middle East 9as if the West doesn’t interfere enough in the Middle East).

 No doubt if Iran is attacked it will be disastrous for not only Iran but for Syria too.

 We can only wait and see what happens but it looks as if the outcome is not going to be good for the region and the rest of the world.

MOSCOW — Hours after US President Donald Trump announced that H.R. McMaster had departed as national security adviser and would be replaced by John Bolton — a longtime detractor of Iran, Iraq, Russia and North Korea, among others — Russia was among the first to react to the news.

Though some Russian officials reacted cautiously and expressed a willingness to work with Washington regardless of who Trump puts into key foreign policy posts, others made it clear that Moscow is genuinely concerned by the course American foreign policy has taken in recent months. Bolton, who was named to the position March 22 — near the 15th anniversary of the start of the US campaign in Iraq — advocated for that war and still does. It's an understatement to say he is seen as a controversial figure.

I read this petition from NIAC with interest, because it explains why Trump picked John Bolton as national security adviser. Whether the argument is believable or not, it is at least an Iranian perspective, something that is largely lacking.

Washington, DC - Trita Parsi, President of the National Iranian American Council, issued the following statement regarding the appointment of John Bolton as National Security Advisor:

“Donald Trump may have just effectively declared war on Iran. With the appointment of John Bolton, and nomination of Mike Pompeo at State, Trump is clearly putting together a war cabinet. As the world awaits Trump’s May 12 decision as to whether he will abandon the Iran nuclear deal, all of the signs now point to a decision to move to war footing.

“Bolton is an unhinged advocate for waging World War III. He has explicitly called for bombing Iran for the past ten years and has suggested the U.S. engage in nuclear first strikes in North Korea. Bolton’s first order of business will be to convince Trump to exit the Iran nuclear deal and lay the groundwork for the war he has urged over the past decade. Additionally, he has has called for ending all visas for Iranians, shipping bunker busting weapons to Israel, and supporting the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) terrorist organization and other separatist groups inside of Iran. The Iranian-American community and our pro-peace, pro-human rights allies will organize to stop Bolton’s plans from becoming a reality.

US President, Donald Trump, caused chaos in the world economy when he announced that the US would impose 25 per cent tariffs on steel imports and 10 per cent on aluminium imports on the grounds of "national security". There are fears that this move will trigger a trade war, particularly with parties such as China, the country's 10th largest importer of steel.

According to a report from Reuters, the US is the world's largest steel importing nation, buying 35.6 million tonnes of the building raw material in 2017. Canada is the largest importer of these products to the US, followed by Brazil. Mexico comes 4th and China is only 10th.  Canada and Mexico have already won exemptions from the tariffs, on the grounds that they are key allies and are therefore essential to the US' military security.

The UAE is also seeking an exemption, based on national security concerns. The UAE is the country's third biggest exporter of aluminium products.

New Zealand is considering seeking an exemption too, although aluminium products constitute only a tiny percentage of business to the US - NZD 23 million in total.

Consequently, New Zealand doesn't constitute a threat to the US so should be spared from any tariffs, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said.

 Bijan Khajehpour for Al Monitor

One of the current concerns of international companies planning to do business in Iran is the threat of a US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the reintroduction of US secondary sanctions. While EU officials are trying to think of mechanisms to counter potential future sanctions against European companies and banks, the more important challenge is how to entice Iran to remain committed to the nuclear deal, even if Washington withdraws.

Iranian officials have been clear that Tehran would only stay committed if it receives enough benefits from staying in the deal. To underline this position, while in London on Feb. 22, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said: “If the same policy of confusion and uncertainties about the JCPOA continues, if companies and banks are not working with Iran, we cannot remain in a deal that has no benefit for us.”

This article will propose a course of action that could offer incentives for a continued Iranian commitment to the nuclear deal.

Evidently, what is hurting Iran is the current degree of uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump’s continuous threats, as well as the existing bottlenecks in the banking and financing channels. In other words, Tehran’s calculation that the JCPOA would lead to major foreign investments and the creation of needed jobs has not materialized. The Iranian government knows that some of the shortcomings are due to legal, political and structural realities in Iran, but it expects the foreign partners of the JCPOA to work with it to achieve the intended results.

The geopolitics of the Middle East are so complicated. The other day I listened to a speech where the speaker maintained that the downfall of the region would be because of a lack of water.

 I don’t concur with this theory. Much of the Middle East has the best technology when it comes to augmenting water supply, mostly to generate desalinated water.

 The problem is that the Middle East has been divided into countries with no respect for tribal allegiances, or differences.

 hen looking up what may happen in the future in the region I came across this article in the journal: “The Cairo Review of Global Affairs”. To view the whole article go to: https://www.thecairoreview.com/essays/dark-geopolitics-of-the-middle-east/

The war in Yemen is often a forgotten war in the Middle East. The UN characterizes Yemen as the worst humanitarian catastrophe in the world today.

I follow Yemen because I’ve travelled there. Yes, the group we were traveling with across the Wadi, from Haben to Aden, was kidnapped. Four of the party were shot dead. That was back in 1998.

I know the kidnappers were after Americans but the fact that people were of a different nationality didn’t matter. We were travelling with different tour groups.

This is what The Guardian newspaper said at the time.

“Three British tourists and one Australian were shot dead yesterday at their kidnappers' hide-out in Yemen when security forces stormed the site in a disastrous end to the country's worst hostage crisis.”

What happens between Israel and Palestine always interests me- especially because I travelled from Palestine to Israel, through the Wall, on the West Bank and got a hard time from the Israelis. And I’m neither Israeli nor Arab.

 The B&B at which I stayed in Bethlehem had intermittent water and electricity. Both came from Israel.

 I always remember one man telling me- a person who had been part of the Peace negotiations at different times-that there will never be Peace between Israel and Palestine. It will always be better for Israel to retain the status quo. They will never give up any territory.

 The article below helps to explain why.

 From Israel Pulse

The Saudis in particular, and the Gulf Arabs in general, know about how to get their businesses thriving. These people are traders, wheelers and dealers, and they know how to get the most out of what they do. They do not think in the Western way, and they often have their own moral code with which Westerners often don’t agree. But their businesses do thrive.

With the intention of building 16 nuclear reactors in Saudi Arabia, the key Saudis in the project have hired lawyers to push through the deal with the US government. The deal is explained below. (from the Brooking Institute).

It’s not always easy for a woman in Saudi Arabia, especially when it comes to doing things that require the approval of a male guardian- like working, or even setting up a business. I’ve set up a business in my country (New Zealand) with a female Saudi colleague for precisely this reason.

 According to the article in the UK’s Daily Mail that came out yesterday the rules are changing. Women will be able to establish their own businesses without requiring the permission of a male. This is well and good but many women will still depend on men, nonetheless.

 The aim, evidently, is to increase the percentage of women in the work force from 22 per cent now to one third by 2030.

 This reminds me of an occasion when I was in Riyadh for a conference and a man stood up and argued for more women in the workforce because “women are no less moral than men”.

The September 25th referendum on Kurdish independence was greeted with much enthusiam by Kurds in New Zealand. I was staying with one Kurdish family at the time. There was an expectation that a “yes” referendum would lead to independence for the Kurds. Little did they expect that Iraq, Iran and Turkey would all be opposed to it.

Turkey has launched a massive attack on the Kurds in Afrin, Syria, which is on the border with Turkey. I think Turkey hates the Kurds more than it does IS. The Turkish government, no matter who is in power, has always been against Kurdish independence. The latest attacks show this. No matter that the Kurdish are great fighters, and were instrumental in the fight against IS.

This article, that was published in Al –Monitor  explains why the Iraqi Kurds are moving closer to Iran

Iraqi Kurds maneuver to get closer to Iran

Fazel Hawramy

The subject of refugees always evokes a mix of emotions. Some people believe that refugees detract from the local community; others that they enhance it and give back more than they take from society. I’m in the latter camp but that’s because I’ve undertaken research on the matter. (I’ve made a documentary on the subject.: “Stepping Up: NZ’s response to the refugee crisis. https://www.luciadore.com/blog/stepping-up-nz-s-response-to-the-refugee-crisis).

I continue to do research on the subject. Indeed, I’m undertaking ongoing research with the Canterbury Refugee Resettlement and Resource Centre (CRRRC) (http://www.canterburyrefugeecentre.org.nz/) where we’re looking at employment and health.

So this article that was published in the Brookings Brief was both timely and enlightening. What will New Zealand learn about the Global Compact for Refugees (GCR).

What the UN can learn from Turkey about refugees

Dominating news in the Middle East is Turkey’s assault on the Kurds. This is nothing new. The Turkish government has always hated the Kurds- Recep Erdogen anyway- and have done all it can to wipe them out.

 Much to the chagrin of Turkey, the US has backed and even armed the Kurds in the fight against Islamic State (IS). And the Kurds have won. They are great fighters and are certainly effective.

 But they are caught between a rock and a hard place. If they fight too well, the Turks will set out to destroy the Kurds; if they don’t fight, they will be destroyed anyway. And with the backing of the US, and many of the international community, the Kurds are better armed and equipped than they have been most of the time.

 I read the article in the UK’s The Guardian newspaper below with interest. It explains the ongoing battlefield between the Turks, the Kurds and the Arabs.

 Turkey to extend Syria campaign to Kurdish-controlled Manbij

I’ve thought long and hard about women driiving in Saudi Arabia. I’m a fan of women driving but what no news outlet has said that it will women driving is limited to people who at least 30 years. That’s my friend in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia says anyway. I thought that the article below was interesting.

Road To 2030: The Economic Impact Of Women Driving In Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia's decision to allow female drivers to drive has been hailed as a step forward for women's rights in the ultra-conservative kingdom, but it could also have a major economic impact. Driven heavily by the “Saudi Vision 2030,” Saudi Arabia is looking at a variety of changes that will make the country globally competitive and less oil-reliant in the future.

First, part of Saudi Vision 2030 is to grow and encourage more foreign direct investment (FDI) into the country. An immediate effect from allowing women to drive is the new market for women drivers. There are estimates that out of the country’s 30 million people, there are more than eight million women aged 15-54 in Saudi Arabia, with a combination of both Saudis and expats, who will be eligible to drive. This means that various automotive companies will potentially have a new massive market to sell their vehicles, as well as those in the auto supply chain.

Between 2010 and 2014 I sat through numerous debates about the exploitation of oil and gas in Lebanon. The oil and gas blocks were often talked about, and companies like Consolidated Contractors Company, (CCC), one of the largest construction firms in the Middle East, had put in a bid for a block.

Although there was much talk, the political process was slow and the ideal of being self sufficient in terms of energy never happened.

This article from Al Monitor is interesting because the author clearly believes that this time the Lebanese government will make the energy equation work. Great if it were to happen; I doubt that it will though. I’ve heard it all before.

Make up your own mind.

 Lebanon’s energy promise could be regional game changer

The row between Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt and Qatar continues. I doubt that the Gulf countries and Egypt expected it to go on for so long. But Qatar is holding out. I said the row would have been over something other than terrorism since all countries in the region can be accused of that. I thought it would be for commercial reasons that the row had erupted, such as Emirates Airlines versus Qatar Airways, which are competing on similar routes. Anyway, according to the Daily Mail UK, the row is over the fact that Qatar refused to hand over the wife of a UAE opposition leader (not that I knew there was one) who had fled to Britain.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5263901/Qatar-crisis-began-did-not-hand-wanted-wife.html

Qatar's fallout with its neighbours was sparked 'when they refused to hand over the wife of an Emirates opposition leader after he fled to Britain'

By Anthony Harwood For Mailonline

Published: 05:39 AEDT, 13 January 2018 | Updated: 06:35 AEDT, 13 January 2018

I thought this was an interesting article talking about Dubai. Here is the article first published by Oxford Business Group (OBG), the global publishing, research and consultancy firm.

*This article is copyright of Oxford Business Group 2018. Published under permission by OBG www.oxfordbusinessgroup.com.

22 Dec 2017

Increased activity in trade, tourism and construction paved the way for another year of growth in Dubai, with momentum expected to continue through 2018 as the emirate’s preparations for Expo 2020 shift up a gear.  

hThese articles recently appeared in FDI magazine.

Lucia Dore | 14/12/2017 12:02 pm |

https://www.fdiintelligence.com/Locations/Asia-Pacific/New-Zealand/Has-FDI-fallen-out-of-favour-in-New-Zealand

Observers fear New Zealand’s historic openness to foreign investors could be a thing of the past under new prime minister Jacinda Ardern, with property speculation coming under increased scrutiny. Lucia Dore reports.

For the most part, New Zealand has had an open and welcoming attitude towards FDI over the years, and has recognised the positive contribution that foreign investors have made to the country. However, this may be about to change. 

These articles recently appeared in FDI magazine.

Lucia Dore | 14/12/2017 12:02 pm |

https://www.fdiintelligence.com/Locations/Asia-Pacific/New-Zealand/Has-FDI-fallen-out-of-favour-in-New-Zealand

Observers fear New Zealand’s historic openness to foreign investors could be a thing of the past under new prime minister Jacinda Ardern, with property speculation coming under increased scrutiny. Lucia Dore reports.

For the most part, New Zealand has had an open and welcoming attitude towards FDI over the years, and has recognised the positive contribution that foreign investors have made to the country. However, this may be about to change. 

The corruption scandal in Saudi Arabia continues to run and run. While prominent Saudi princes and businessmen are arrested, Prince Al Waleed Bin Talal, one of the richest men in the region said to be worth $16 billion, there are stories that they will give part of their holdings to Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS) who is calling the shots . Is this really a purge on corruption or a power grab?

 In some of the reports, US mercenaries, who provide protection for MBS, are reportedly holding the hostages. In another report, Americans are also being held in the round up.

This is the link.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5215505/Saudi-prince-detained American-businessmen-crackdown.html

This is the news story in the Daily Mail (UK).