What next for the Lebanon and Saudi Arabia?

I’ve been following the government changes in Saudi with much interest, having lived in the region and covered it journalistically for 8.5 years. It is no surprise that there are changes in the Saudi ruling family; those changes are rumoured to have been happening for years.

However, this time is different. The changes are swift and dramatic and several events have combined at the same time. While not directly linked, they could bring more instability to an already volatile region.

But whether it is a purge against corruption or a move by the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) to consolidate his power is another matter.  

First, there is the resignation of Lebanon’s Sunni Prime Minister, Saad Hariri, who is also the son of the Syrian-murdered former prime minister Rafik Hariri in 2005. Saad Hariri, who has joint Lebanese and Saudi citzenship, evidently feared for his life and had just had a meeting with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayotollah Ali Khamenei.

Evidently, he was summoned from Beirut and sacked by his Saudi “allies”. I’ve also been told by my source in Saudi Arabia that Hariri’s bodyguard was told to leave Saudi Arabia Monday night. What will happen to him?

Over the years I’ve also heard less than good things about the Hariri’s. For example, the owner of the St George Hotel, which sits on the waterfront in downtown Beirut, would not sell to Rafik Hariri, so it remains abandoned, on its own.

As was printed in The Guardian in 2015: “The man behind this urban-scale protest placard is Fady El-Khoury, owner of the St George Hotel, who has been in legal deadlock with Solidere, the development company behind the reconstruction of downtown Beirut, for the last 20 years.”  Solidere, stands for Société Libanaise pour le Développement et la Reconstruction de Beyrouth was founded by Rafik Hariri in 1994. https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/jan/22/beirut-lebanon-glitzy-downtown-redevelopment-gucci-prada

The Hariri-owned Saudi construction firm, Saudi Oger, was also in discussions to the Saudi government in 2016, with debts of about USD 1 billion, according to a report in Construction Week. http://www.constructionweekonline.com/article-40549-saudi-oger-owner-in-kingdom-to-finalise-sale-talks/. The company was eventually closed.

And my source in Saudi Arabia (who is Saudi-born) says a war with Hezbollah, which is in backed by Iran, is pending.

Indeed, according to the Saudi Arabian website, Al Arabiya, Saudi is intent on waging war on Hezbollah.  https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/gulf/2017/11/07/Saudi-Arabia-We-will-treat-Lebanese-government-as-a-declaration-of-war.html

Second, at the same time as Hariri’s resignation, 11 princes, and about 40 of the country’s most powerful military officers, influential businessmen and government ministers were arrested by MBS for corruption, among them Prince Al- Waleed bin Talal, one of the world’s richest men, with large shares in companies’ such as Citi, Apple, Twitter, Newscorp and Rotana Group (a media company).

Various reasons are being put forth about the purge. Here is the argument that is most common - www.Angryarabblogspot

(Sunday, November 05, 2017)

What is happening in Saudi Arabia; the Ritz saga continues

Ba`thist regimes used to arrest people on trumped up charges of spying for Israel.  The regime of Muhammad bin Salman arrests people (opposition people or people who are quiet as being quiet is a crime in the land of MbS) on charges of either terrorism or corruption.  If there is a real campaign against corruption, why are Bandar bin Sultan and Khalid bin Sultan free?  And what about the US $500 million yacht which MbS bought on a whim? Was that from his hard work earnings?  This is what I learned from a source in a major Saudi media conglomerate: the arrest of the princes and business people has nothing to do with corruption.  It was part of an insistence by MbS to control vast financial interests.  The An-Nashir for Research company, owned by MbS, wanted to buy MBC TV stations a year ago.  Its owner Al-Walid Al-Ibrahim (brother-in-law of King Fahd) refused the offer but kept the door for negotiations open while he never wanted to sell.  He is part of the detainees in the Ritz in Riyadh.  There is pressure on him to transfer complete ownership to An-Nashir co and for free.  Same story is happening with Al-Walid bin Talal and his in-law Ibrahim Al-`Assaf where they are being pressured to relinquish investment and properties under the guise that they were obtained through corrupt means.  The goal is for MbS to hold the keys to all the large media empires and relocate them to Saudi Arabia to be under his tight control.  Salih Al-Kamil owner of OSN is also a detainee.  There is a state of anxiety among the staff of all Saudi media, especially those located outside the kingdom.)

A day after the purge with the princes, and government ministers, Prince Mansour bin Marquin, the deputy governor of Saudi Arabia's southern Asir provincedied in a helicopter at the Yemeni border with seven other government officials www.aol.com/article/news/2017/11/06/saudi-prince-killed-in-helicopter-crash-a-day-after-royal-purge/23267885/.

Third, Saudi Arabia also launched a “fire and forget missile”, its main target being Tehran. It jolted Lebanon first, however. A long range missile, from the Houthis in Yemen, also struck Riyad’s King Khalid’s international airport on Sunday.No doubt, there will be more developments.