Recently I went to a talk by Dr Sandhya Ramrakha on the internationally recognised Dunedin Study- the longest multi-disciplinary, longitudinal study in the world, which is carried out by Otago University. It is known formally as the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Research Unit (DMHDRU). The study tracks the lives of about 1000 babies born in Dunedin between 1972 and 1973. Now in its 45th year, the study is ramping up, particularly as people are beginning to age.

 Since most ageing research is done on the elderly, little is known about biological aging in young humans. The study aims to fill this gap.

 “We know that the aging process starts right from the beginning of life and our people are at a critical point in their life course. They’ve now reached the point where they are starting to go down the aging pathway. We want to figure out what lies ahead, because this is one race you don’t won’t to win,” the October 17 magazine of the University of Otago states.

 This year the study has also re-introduced studies of hearing and sight, not done since childhood; muscolosketal health, including pain and body composition; dietary biomarkets; investigative oxidative stress cellular health and chronic kidney injury; and brain imaging research.

 Other aims of the study include understanding the reasons for people’s behaviour over time. It is used to inform health, education and social policy in particular. For example, it also presents new findings on domestic violence that shows that women are just as likely to commit domestic violence offences as men. http://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/news/81025573/domestic-violence-study-presents-challenging-picture

Technology in the media is moving so fast. It's all about ensuring that people have a good media experience and this article by Carolyn Morgan tells how.

This article is in a series exploring key themes in technology from the Web Summit in Lisbon and how they may impact on media brands.

Video already drives engagement on mobile and social: media brands need to adapt to this form of story telling and engaging audiences. But the gaming and entertainment industry, in search of more immersive experiences, are already developing augmented reality (AR), volumetric video and virtual reality (VR). As mobile devices evolve to be capable of handling these forms of content, consumers will become used to the visual experiences, and media owners will need to develop new ways to present content.

60% of time spent online by US consumers is watching video, and mobile makes up 23% of total online video viewing, growing at an annual rate of 30%. Currently video only accounts for 5% adspend, but this is growing at 58% pa. Social platforms dominate video viewing – 47% of referrals traffic to video content come from social, overwhelmingly from Facebook.

Cartoon avatars can’t express genuine emotions, and CGI is prohibitively expensive, so there’s growing interest in volumetric video, filmed using an array of cameras, creating a file small enough to be shared to a phone, and an image that can be viewed from all sides. Applications could include museum hosts, virtual retail assistants or personal trainers.

The war in Yemen wages on, seemingly without end. And if the Saudi-led coalition doesn't let humanitarian aid into the country there will be a huge famine. Saudi Arabia is fighting the Houthis, which dominates the government and is Iran backed. Saudi Arabia, which is Sunni, wants to be the dominant force in the Middle East. At the moment, it is waging a proxy war against Iran and is failing. It has not achieved the gains it hoped it would by backing the rebels in Syria; Bashir Assad, who is backed by Iran is still in power. The next country on the cards is Lebanon and in a delicately balanced government between about 14 different religions, where the Prime Minister is always a Sunni, Saudi Arabia has caused chaos by insisting that the Prime Minister, Saad Hariri, resigned. Saudi Arabia wants to wage war against Iran-back Hezbollah which certainly dominates in the South of Lebanon. (The photos are from there). This article in Arab Digest explains well what is happening in Lebanon.

Summary: resignation of Prime Minister Hariri less a Lebanese affair than part of the Saudi obsession with Iran (backed by Israel but not the US). Poor Lebanon will pay the price.

On 4 November the Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced his resignation. He made the announcement in Riyadh, saying that there were covert plans against his life. In language more characteristic of Saudi than of Lebanese politics (he is a dual Lebanese/Saudi national) he accused Iran of creating in Hizbullah a state within a state; “I say to Iran and its allies – you have lost in your efforts to meddle in the affairs of the Arab world... [the region] will rise again and the hands that you have wickedly extended into it will be cut off.” An AP report comments that “Saudi fingerprints were seen all over Hariri's resignation.”

As we commented in a posting of 3 November 2016 the Lebanese political game is played by rules laid down over seventy years ago in the National Pact. Since Ottoman times the population has consisted of a wide palette of minorities, Maronite Catholic, Greek Orthodox, Sunni Muslim, Shia Muslim, Druze, not to mention Armenians, Kurds and others. The president is a Maronite, the prime minister a Sunni, the speaker of parliament a Shia, the army commander a Druze, and so on. Minority communities include differing political or tribal elements, so that both the governments and the oppositions have been mosaic coalitions. This unique system has given Lebanon prosperity and stability, interrupted from time to time by external forces and events, Palestinian (refugees in 1948, PLO from Jordan in 1970), Syrian (multiple intervention from 1976 to 2005, now 1.5 million refugees), Israeli (various wars, occupation of the mainly Shia south from 1982 to 2000).

In 2005 the long serving Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, father of Saad, was assassinated. Hizbullah was accused (not only Hizbullah), but the investigation got nowhere. After long conflict and confusion the present government under President Michel Aoun was formed a year ago. As we commented on 17 March it resulted from a deal with Hizbullah. Originally formed to resist the Israeli occupation, Hizbullah represents the Lebanese Shia community as well as being the most powerful military force in Lebanon. Supported by Iran it has played a major military role in the Syrian civil war in support of the regime.

Maori Iwi have come together to form a NZD 100 million fund, so that they can each make more and better investments. Here is the press release.

Indicative commitments of up to $100 million have been made by iwi, pan-tribal organisations, Māori land trusts and Māori incorporations to a proposed Iwi/Māori Direct Investment Fund.

The Fund, which will help the Māori groups further diversify their portfolios and access larger scale direct investment opportunities than they can achieve on an individual basis, will see the groups pooling capital for collective investments. Iwi and Māori groups have an increasing economic base, with potential to grow land, capability and capital. 

Over 35 Māori groups have made indicative commitments to the Fund and are now working together to finalise legal documentation and internal governance approvals.  Organisations that have made indicative commitments to the Fund include various Tūwharetoa organisations aggregating together as a single investor, Te Tumu Paeroa, and various Taranaki iwi entities.

"The Paradise Papers" and Appleby, the law firm at the centre of the scandal, have hit the headlines recently. This press release explains have the NZ Superannuation Fund has fared.

The Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation, the manager of the NZ Super Fund, confirmed today that it had previously used Appleby, the law firm at the centre of the 'Paradise Papers' document release.

The Guardians has used Appleby to assist it with local Bermudan law advice in respect of re-insurance contracts and establishment of separate accounts to hold re-insurance products as part of the Fund's natural catastrophe reinsurance mandates with external investment managers Elementum Advisers (2009/11) and Leadenhall (2013).

At this point Appleby is unable to confirm whether or not there has been a security breach of the Guardians' documents. However, given the nature of the work Appleby undertook, the Guardians is confident there will be no negative commercial implications for the Fund from the potential breach.

Based on information from the IRD, the Guardians also understands that a wholly owned Fund subsidiary, "NZSF Private Equity Investments (No. 1) Limited", is mentioned in the papers as a Limited Partner of Coller International Partners V (CIP V). Appleby was advising Coller in respect of this transaction, not the Guardians.

For anyone interested in mergers and acquisitions (M&A), here is a good round up of what's going on. I followed the ups and downs of the M&A market for years, when I was head of a newswire service, Mergermarket, looking at M&A in the middle East. Ernst & Young produce a good round up every year. 

The digital transformation race and rising economic confidence to drive more M&A

- Near-record number of companies (56%) plan to acquire in the next 12 months

- 51% of executives expecting increased M&A competition see PE as biggest competitive threat  

I’ve been following the government changes in Saudi with much interest, having lived in the region and covered it journalistically for 8.5 years. It is no surprise that there are changes in the Saudi ruling family; those changes are rumoured to have been happening for years.

However, this time is different. The changes are swift and dramatic and several events have combined at the same time. While not directly linked, they could bring more instability to an already volatile region.

But whether it is a purge against corruption or a move by the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) to consolidate his power is another matter.  

First, there is the resignation of Lebanon’s Sunni Prime Minister, Saad Hariri, who is also the son of the Syrian-murdered former prime minister Rafik Hariri in 2005. Saad Hariri, who has joint Lebanese and Saudi citzenship, evidently feared for his life and had just had a meeting with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayotollah Ali Khamenei.

Evidently, he was summoned from Beirut and sacked by his Saudi “allies”. I’ve also been told by my source in Saudi Arabia that Hariri’s bodyguard was told to leave Saudi Arabia Monday night. What will happen to him?

There's been a lot of talk recently about the Balfour Declaration since November 2 was the centenary of that document.  This date was when Israel obtained land in Palestianian territory. The outcome depends on whether you are an Israeli or a Palestianian. Here 's what was written in the Arab Digest.

Summary: debate in Parliament produces nothing new. Among many comments on the centenary a new Balfour Centenary Declaration supported by MPs from all parties and many others.

As expected (our posting of 20 October) the approach to the centenary of the Balfour declaration, today 2 November 2017, has produced much comment. The British and Israeli prime ministers are expected to speak at a commemoration banquet tonight. The Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson made a statement in Parliament on 30 October which was followed by a brief debate. Emily Thornberry, Shadow Foreign Secretary, argued that “With the empty vessel that is the American President making lots of noise but being utterly directionless, the need for Britain to show leadership on this issue [Palestine] is ever more pressing”. Johnson stuck to the well worn position of using the USA as a human shield: “the US Administration have shown their commitment to breaking the deadlock, and a new American envoy, Jason Greenblatt, has made repeated visits to the region. The Government will of course support these efforts in whatever way we can… we need them to be in the lead… we see the most fertile prospects now in the new push coming from America… ”

All parties represented in Parliament are now committed to recognition of Palestine as a state except the governing Conservative party (and presumably their coalition partner the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party), whose intention is clearly to wait for America.

On 31 October a Balfour Centenary Declaration, see below, was launched in Parliament by Richard Burden MP (Labour), Lord Cope of Berkeley (Conservative), Dr Philippa Whitford MP (Scottish National party), and Rt Hon Tom Brake MP (Lib Dem), signed by over 60 distinguished people including members of Parliament from the four main parties. We are grateful to Vincent Fean, former British ambassador and former consul-general in Jerusalem, for the text from which he spoke to an audience of over 1000 at Westminster Central Hall.

There is so much happening in Saudi Arabia right now, and not just the meetings with Donald Trump and his clan. Oil, the Saudi ruling family and Islam are all showing signs of cracks. Certainly, Saudi Arabia is not how it used to be. Explaining this is Andrew Critchlow, who spent a long time in the Middle East, (when I was there). He went to the UK and was working with Thomson Reuters.

Three main pillars bind Saudi Arabia together: oil, the ruling Al Saud family and Islam. Reforms are preparing the Middle East’s largest economy for the end of a reliance on the first. But they could have a destabilising knock-on effect on the other two.

Saudi as a modern nation was founded in 1932 by a powerful regional overlord known as Ibn Saud. Since then the family has monopolised power by doling out its vast petroleum wealth in the form of handouts and preferential business deals while maintaining an uneasy pact with an ultra-conservative domestic religious establishment. But a 62 percent slide in the price of crude since 2012 has forced the kingdom to cut benefits such as energy subsidies for the average Saudi. Buying support is about to get tougher.

The radical restructuring of the economy now being managed by Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman – one of Ibn Saud’s many grandsons – is ambitious and not before time. The prince, widely known as ‘MbS’, last month presented the details of his Vision 2030 and short-term National Transformation Plan, with the aim of weaning Saudi off oil, which still accounts for over 70 percent of budget revenues. But although it’s a financial necessity for Riyadh to rein in a record budget deficit, politically the strategy is risky – it could prove unpopular in poorer rural tribal areas of the desert kingdom.

That would be okay if the 1000-plus princes of the Al Saud family were a unified bunch. But they are not immune to disagreements. After the death of the incumbent King Salman bin Abdulaziz, power will pass for the first time outside the direct line of Ibn Saud’s sons, which itself implies a less harmonious succession. The sudden elevation of the 31-year-old MbS, the current king’s son, looks a threat to his cousin Mohammed bin Nayef, who as crown prince is the official heir to the throne. It could also kindle resentment among the sons of previous rulers who were passed over, including those who don’t descend from the offspring of Ibn Saud’s most influential wife, Hassa bint Ahmed al-Sudairi.

Ethiopians living in New Zealand face a number of challenges.  These will be discussed at a community meeting to be held at 474 Great North Road, Auckland. on November 4.

The guest speaker will be Mr Abebe Gellaw, an international journalist who is executive director of Ethiopian Satellite Television and Radio (ESAT TV) and will be available for interview until November 8. Please contact Nestanet Kassa  on 0278054332 or email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..

Gellaw works at Stanford University where, in 2008-09, he was the John S. Knight Fellow for Professional Journalists and Yahoo International Fellow. He is a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution and visiting scholar at the Centre on Democracy Development and Rule of Law. He is working on a book project, Ethiopia under Meles: Why the transition from military rule to democracy failed.

He began his career in journalism in 1993 as a freelance writer focusing on human rights and political issues. He worked for various print and online publications including the Ethiopian Herald, the only English daily in the country. Gellaw is also a founding editor of Addisvoice.com, a bilingual online journal focusing on Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa

The meeting will present a perspective on Ethiopia different from how it is often perceived, which is of a booming economy and adventure tourism.

The Gulf Co-Operation Council (GCC) dispute over Qatar is going on and on. Neither side-  four countries- Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Egypt, versus Qatar, are willing to give in.

The dispute has certainly highlighted the issue of food security- something that GCC countries are trying to resolve by reducing their dependency on imported food. Qatar has not achieved this (no one has) and is throwing money at the problem by bringing into the country 4,000 Irish dairy cows with reportedly 10,000 more to follow. The country can then feed all its population. Is this an attempt to destroy Qatar by starvation?

There are also reports that the GCC Summit due to take place in Kuwait in December is likely to be postponed to mid 2018 and that the US is pulling out of some military exercises planned with GCC countries. Qatar has also taken formal steps in the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to escalate a compliant it lodged in July against the UAE.

Also, in some comments made to Arab Digest, it seems that the GCC is now more receptive to some approaches from Israeli countries. It seems that being Israeli is no longer a hindrance to doing business in the GCC.

October 23, 2017, Shanghai – Real estate private equity firm Gaw Capital Partners announced that it has entered into a framework agreement to acquire SKY SOHO (Lingkong SOHO), a group of iconic Class A office buildings in Shanghai, China, from SOHO China (410: Hong Kong) through one of the funds under its management.

Located in the heart of Linkong Economic Park and designed by world-famous architect Zaha Hadid, the development has a 128,175 sqm total gross floor area with 103,014 sqm of office and 25,161 sqm of retail. The property is comprised of office towers with retail podiums underneath, and has excellent transport links via its close proximity to Hongqiao Transportation Hub and the Songhong Road metro station, which connects directly with Hongqiao International Airport and Hongqiao Railway Station via Metro Line 2. Since its opening, the complex’s surreal, dynamic and futuristic design has left a significant impression on Shanghai, and made it a striking and iconic landmark in the city.

Shanghai Hongqiao Transportation Hub is one of the world’s largest transportation and business hubs which integrates the city’s second international airport, the Hongqiao high-speed railway station, the Shanghai Metro, the inter-city railway system, and local and long-distance passenger transportation all in one location. Gaw Capital has closely observed the exponential development in Hongqiao as a result of the Hub, which was a strategic project under the Eleventh Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (2006 – 2010), and has monitored the opportunities in the area to engage in the right project at the right time.

Humbert Pang, Managing Principal and Head of China at Gaw Capital Partners, said, “We have been eyeing the Hongqiao Transportation Hub, because it is an unique integrated business district in the world connecting to both the airport and the high-speed railway station. We are extremely pleased to have the opportunity to acquire this top-grade development in such an ideal location close to the Hub and within the broad catchment area of the new cluster of cities in Jiangsu province. As Shanghai continues to prosper, there will be continued demand for prime office and retail space, boosted by policy support from the government and superior links to a vast transportation network across the Yangtze River delta region and beyond.”

Should journalism be taught along with ethics? The argument put forth below is that the two disciplines must be taught together. With the rise of social media, both should probably be taught but until now they have not been. I know that when I was at post-grad journalism school in the 1980s, ethics was not taught. It was assumed that we would all act ethically and consequently we would make the right decision.

 In many cases, that philosophy has been the right one and journalists often made the ethically correct decision. The rise in fake news and social media appears to have changed that, especially among the younger generation of journalists.

 I know the subject of ethics is taught in many schools across the Middle East. But I haven’t met anyone who was taught ethics in the UK or New Zealand. Is that about to change?

 This article came from Mediashift and EducationShift respectively.

Remix: Teaching #EthicalReporting in 140 Characters

The New Zealand Superannuation Fund is performing remarkably well, at 14.6 per cent, in a low interest environment, globally. As outlined in its annual report the fund has invested heavily in New Zealand, which is not a large market. This report, and foreword by Adrian Orr, CEO, explains the basis of the fund's performance.

Kia ora,

I'm delighted to present the 2017 Annual Report of the Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation and the New Zealand Superannuation Fund.

This year's Annual Report has the theme "Invested in New Zealand and the world – Kaingākau ana ki Aotearoa me te ao".

The Fund is a significant investor in New Zealand with nearly $5 billion invested locally. We also invest around the world in order to diversify the Fund and get the best long-term investment returns for New Zealanders.

This is the final chapter in the forthcoming e-book which considers what will happen when the Saudi and Egyptian regimes fall and the West’s struggle against Jihad.

The Future of the Middle East

We are pleased to announce today the publication of the final chapter in our forthcoming new e-book ‘The Future of the Middle East’, co-produced by Global Policy and Arab Digest and edited by Hugh Miles and Alastair Newton.

Global Policy is an interdisciplinary peer reviewed journal and online platform which aims to bring together academics and practitioners to analyse public and private solutions to global issues. Established in 2010, Global Policy is based at Durham University and edited by David Held and Dani Rodrik.

We would like to thank again all the experts who so kindly contributed to this project and made it a success. The completed e-book will be published on October 23rd. We will provide more information about this closer to the time. Meanwhile all previous chapters are freely available here.

Insurance Technology, known as Insurtech, is a subset of financial technology (fintech) and is increasing, according to InsurTech Insider, a podcast by Deloitte (UK), the management consultant.

I listened to the first three episodes of the podcast, July August, September, which is produced monthly. I learnt a lot from the episodes I listened to. Go to https://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/pages/financial-services/articles/tune-in-insurtech-podcasts.html

The points I learned from the podcasts were:

(Episode 1)          

-       That it’s possible to buy car insurance by the hour, which means you can borrow a friend’s supercar.

Turkey is proving to be increasingly authoritarian. Another journalist, of dual Turkish and Finnish nationality, is convicted of terrorism charges. She is in New York.

Turkey has one of the worst records for detaining journalists. According to Reporters Without Borders (RSF), more than 100 journalists and media contributors are now in Turkish jails. “RSF has to date been able to establish a direct link between the arrest and the victim’s journalistic activities in 41 of these cases, and the organisation continues to verify others. President Erdogan’s increasing authoritarianism is being reflected in raids on media outlets that are designed to silence his critics,” the 2016 report states.

he report also shows that the number of detained professional journalists in Turkey has risen 22% after quadrupling in the wake of the failed coup d’état in July.

“Hundreds of Turkish journalist have been taken to court on charges of “insulting the president” or “terrorism.” Some have even been jailed without any charges brought against them. The number of cases of arbitrary imprisonment continues to rise.

“Aside from Turkey, the three other biggest jailers of journalists are China, Iran and Egypt. They alone account for more than two thirds of the world’s detained journalists.”

For a comprehensive assessment on what is happening in the media in the Middle East- online and traditional- check out this survey by Northwestern University in Qatar. The findings are enlightening, especially the differences between the Arab countries.

I’ve put the executive summary below. For those who want to read the report more fully go to http://www.mideastmedia.org/survey/2017/uploads/file/NUQ_Media_Use_2017_v18%20FINAL.pdf

Below are the key findings from this study, which are explored in detail in the chapters that follow.

Media Use by Platform

Compared to five years ago, internet penetration rose in all six countries surveyed and most dramatically in Jordan, Lebanon, and Tunisia.

Dubai has hit the headlines in the British papers again, and not for a good reason. It was reported that a British guy could be jailed for indecent behaviour for maybe three years. He was in Rock Bottom bar in Tecom (where I used to live) and brushed a Jordanian man on the hips, in a bid not to spill his drink.  The Jordanian man thought his behaviour was indecent. That’s how the incident has been reported by the British media. (See article in the Daily Mail below).

In other media, notably in Dubai, it was reported that the man was drunk so when the police arrived he was arrested.

Few people, apart from those ex-pats who live there, seem to realise that it is illegal to be caught drinking outside a licensed premises such as restaurant or club. That’s why people who live in the emirate get an alcohol license, which entails getting a signature from your employer that you are allowed to drink, among other things. I never got one.

Without a license you can be arrested for drinking at home, or even for having alcohol on the premises. So, if the police found this guy drunk, or even with alcohol in his system, he would be arrested. Indecency wouldn’t even need to be considered.

British father begs people not to visit Dubai

The stories about the horrific shootings in Las Vegas, Nevada, the United States, just keep on coming. Each day there is something new. And among the reports there appears to be no attempt by officialdom to change any legislation, the most obvious being to change the gun laws. Imagine if the shooter had have been a Muslim, and thereby automatically a terrorist. All sorts of legislation would have been enacted, including expanding the Muslim immigration ban. Now the government is faced with the fact that the biggest mass shooting in American history was perpetrated by a home-grown white, male American. An ordinary bloke and a "nice" guy. No need to change any laws since this tragedy could happen anytime, anywhere. it had nothing to do with terrorism. Only 59 people were shot dead.

This opinion piece that appeared in the New York Times by Thomas L Friedman sums up the tragedy well.

If only Stephen Paddock had been a Muslim … If only he had shouted “Allahu akbar” before he opened fire on all those concertgoers in Las Vegas … If only he had been a member of ISIS … If only we had a picture of him posing with a Quran in one hand and his semiautomatic rifle in another …

If all of that had happened, no one would be telling us not to dishonor the victims and “politicize” Paddock’s mass murder by talking about preventive remedies.

No, no, no. Then we know what we’d be doing. We’d be scheduling immediate hearings in Congress about the worst domestic terrorism event since 9/11. Then Donald Trump would be tweeting every hour “I told you so,” as he does minutes after every terror attack in Europe, precisely to immediately politicize them. Then there would be immediate calls for a commission of inquiry to see what new laws we need to put in place to make sure this doesn’t happen again. Then we’d be “weighing all options” against the country of origin.