Continuing on the “Bolton” theme I’m posting an article that appeared in Al Monitor magazine. So its not just parts of the Middle East who are worried about the impact of the appointment of John Bolton – of course the UAE and Saudi Arabia agree with the appointment- but Russia too is concerned about the consequences- that the Iran deal won’t hold and there will be war in the Middle East 9as if the West doesn’t interfere enough in the Middle East).

 No doubt if Iran is attacked it will be disastrous for not only Iran but for Syria too.

 We can only wait and see what happens but it looks as if the outcome is not going to be good for the region and the rest of the world.

Russians fear Bolton may doom Iran deal, stoke arms raceMaxim A. Suchkov March 23, 2018 Article SummaryJohn Bolton's upcoming role as national security adviser is controversial not only in the United States; it's raising eyebrows, and concerns, around much of the rest of the world

MOSCOW — Hours after US President Donald Trump announced that H.R. McMaster had departed as national security adviser and would be replaced by John Bolton — a longtime detractor of Iran, Iraq, Russia and North Korea, among others — Russia was among the first to react to the news.

Though some Russian officials reacted cautiously and expressed a willingness to work with Washington regardless of who Trump puts into key foreign policy posts, others made it clear that Moscow is genuinely concerned by the course American foreign policy has taken in recent months. Bolton, who was named to the position March 22 — near the 15th anniversary of the start of the US campaign in Iraq — advocated for that war and still does. It's an understatement to say he is seen as a controversial figure.

I read this petition from NIAC with interest, because it explains why Trump picked John Bolton as national security adviser. Whether the argument is believable or not, it is at least an Iranian perspective, something that is largely lacking.

Washington, DC - Trita Parsi, President of the National Iranian American Council, issued the following statement regarding the appointment of John Bolton as National Security Advisor:

“Donald Trump may have just effectively declared war on Iran. With the appointment of John Bolton, and nomination of Mike Pompeo at State, Trump is clearly putting together a war cabinet. As the world awaits Trump’s May 12 decision as to whether he will abandon the Iran nuclear deal, all of the signs now point to a decision to move to war footing.

“Bolton is an unhinged advocate for waging World War III. He has explicitly called for bombing Iran for the past ten years and has suggested the U.S. engage in nuclear first strikes in North Korea. Bolton’s first order of business will be to convince Trump to exit the Iran nuclear deal and lay the groundwork for the war he has urged over the past decade. Additionally, he has has called for ending all visas for Iranians, shipping bunker busting weapons to Israel, and supporting the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) terrorist organization and other separatist groups inside of Iran. The Iranian-American community and our pro-peace, pro-human rights allies will organize to stop Bolton’s plans from becoming a reality.

US President, Donald Trump, caused chaos in the world economy when he announced that the US would impose 25 per cent tariffs on steel imports and 10 per cent on aluminium imports on the grounds of "national security". There are fears that this move will trigger a trade war, particularly with parties such as China, the country's 10th largest importer of steel.

According to a report from Reuters, the US is the world's largest steel importing nation, buying 35.6 million tonnes of the building raw material in 2017. Canada is the largest importer of these products to the US, followed by Brazil. Mexico comes 4th and China is only 10th.  Canada and Mexico have already won exemptions from the tariffs, on the grounds that they are key allies and are therefore essential to the US' military security.

The UAE is also seeking an exemption, based on national security concerns. The UAE is the country's third biggest exporter of aluminium products.

New Zealand is considering seeking an exemption too, although aluminium products constitute only a tiny percentage of business to the US - NZD 23 million in total.

Consequently, New Zealand doesn't constitute a threat to the US so should be spared from any tariffs, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said.

There is uncertainty as to whether the Iran nuclear deal will continue, especially whether the US will remain committed to it. There is a course of action that will ensure that there is a continued Iranian deal as is explained in the article below.by

 Bijan Khajehpour for Al Monitor

One of the current concerns of international companies planning to do business in Iran is the threat of a US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the reintroduction of US secondary sanctions. While EU officials are trying to think of mechanisms to counter potential future sanctions against European companies and banks, the more important challenge is how to entice Iran to remain committed to the nuclear deal, even if Washington withdraws.

Iranian officials have been clear that Tehran would only stay committed if it receives enough benefits from staying in the deal. To underline this position, while in London on Feb. 22, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said: “If the same policy of confusion and uncertainties about the JCPOA continues, if companies and banks are not working with Iran, we cannot remain in a deal that has no benefit for us.”

This article will propose a course of action that could offer incentives for a continued Iranian commitment to the nuclear deal.

Evidently, what is hurting Iran is the current degree of uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump’s continuous threats, as well as the existing bottlenecks in the banking and financing channels. In other words, Tehran’s calculation that the JCPOA would lead to major foreign investments and the creation of needed jobs has not materialized. The Iranian government knows that some of the shortcomings are due to legal, political and structural realities in Iran, but it expects the foreign partners of the JCPOA to work with it to achieve the intended results.

I was interested to read this article as to why the Pompeo appointment appeals to the UAE- he is anti-Iran. I understand the politics of religion but not the politics of pragmatism. Nearly all the moneyed-families in Dubai, mostly traders, have roots in southern Iran. And companies in Ras Al Khaimah (an emirate in the UAE) have many trading initiatives with Iran and even offices there. Moreover. much of the reason Iran survived while sanctions were imposed is that dhows (boats) full of goods (particularly white goods) left from the creek in Bur Dubai to Iran. Where does the UAE really stand?I also received a petition the other day regarding a war on Iran, by Saudi Arabia (with whom the UAE is ostensibly aligned to). It said that a war between the two countries will be next. Will it? it might be. It would aid in ensuring that America is great, again.For an explanation on this relationship, take a read of the article below. Pompeo pick pleases Abu DhabiGiorgio Cafiero March 18, 2018 in Al Monitor, Pulse Article SummaryUnited Arab Emirates officials see a shift at the US State Department in their favor, but are unlikely to see all their hopes realized under Mike Pompeo.REUTERS: US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson (L) is seen in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, March 8, 2018, and CIA Director Mike Pompeo is seen on Capitol Hill in Washington, Feb. 13, 2018.

US President Donald Trump’s decision to replace Secretary of State Rex Tillerson with CIA Director Mike Pompeo came at a time of major foreign policy challenges for Washington. As America’s chief diplomat, Pompeo will have to address several sensitive dilemmas in the Middle East, including the Qatar crisis and Washington’s difficult relations with Turkey and Iran. His nomination is producing optimism in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that America’s positions regarding Doha, Ankara and Tehran will shift in a direction that is more favorable to Abu Dhabi.

Pompeo’s record is staunchly anti-Islamist, which appeals to the UAE. As a US lawmaker, Pompeo co-sponsored the Muslim Brotherhood Terrorist Designation Act of 2015, which identified the movement as a terrorist organization and linked three US-based Islamic groups — the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), the Islamic Society of North America and the North American Islamic Trust — to the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. (The bill did not make it out of committee.) In 2014, the UAE designated CAIR and the Muslim American Society as terrorist organizations, underscoring a narrative that certain Islamic organizations in America have terrorist connections. Ultimately, given Pompeo’s strong opposition to such US-based groups, the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, it is possible that Pompeo will be far less keen than Tillerson to pressure the Saudi/UAE-led bloc to tone down its rhetoric about Qatar’s alleged sponsorship of terrorism and to ease or lift the blockade.

The UAE drives anti-Turkey discourse in Washington. Abu Dhabi’s ambassador to Washington has harshly condemned Ankara’s role in the Middle East, maintaining that most Americans fail to grasp the extent to which Turkey has changed in recent years as well as the “long-term threat it poses to most of us.” Indeed, tensions between Turkey and the UAE have heated up, especially due to Egypt’s internal political developments since 2013, the failed Turkish coup plot of July 15, 2016, (which Turkish officials and various pundits openly accuse the Emiratis of playing a hand in orchestrating and bankrolling with $3 billion) and the multisided Syrian civil war. In Turkey there is a perception that Abu Dhabi is supporting the Kurdistan Workers Party. The UAE opposes Turkey's Operation Olive Branch and Abu Dhabi condemned Turkey’s shooting down of a Russian fighter jet that was flying over northern Syria (and briefly over southern Turkey) in November 2015.

That Pompeo called Turkey and Iran “totalitarian Islamist dictatorships” one day after the failed coup attempt of 2016 in response to the Iranian foreign minister’s tweet expressing solidarity with Turkey’s elected government is not forgotten in Ankara, where Turkish officials view the State Department shake-up with unease. Unquestionably, Tillerson’s recent visit to Ankara was understood as a success in terms of easing tension in the shaky alliance between America and its fellow NATO member. The UAE would most welcome a new secretary of state who is less vested in improving understanding between Washington and Ankara over Turkey’s actions in northern Syria, where the UAE alleges that Ankara’s “neo-Ottoman” foreign policy is a threat to Arab interests.

Pompeo, known as a "hawk’s hawk," has a reputation for hard-line anti-Iran positions. According to Trump’s explanation of his decision to replace Tillerson with Pompeo, differences of opinion on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between the US president and the 69th secretary of state were an important factor. Although it is unclear how Trump and Pompeo will approach questions regarding the JCPOA’s future, and how the two would deal with the question of Iran’s foreign policy in the Arab world if the JCPOA unravels, it is undoubtedly clear that Pompeo’s outlook toward the Islamic Republic will provide more assurance to the Emirati leadership about Washington’s commitment to pushing back against the expansion and consolidation of Iranian influence in the region.

 

Work in any Arab Gulf country and you have to have a work permit, which entails sponsorship from a prospective employer. In Dubai, if you didn’t work inside a freezone- in other words, if you worked in Dubai proper - you couldn’t just transfer to another job without first obtaining the permission of the existing employer that you could move to another company. That rule only changed about 10 years ago.

 If you are working for a local company, as I was, expect your passport to be retained. I complained and refused to do so; my ID card was taken instead. I rang the British Embassy when I knew my passport was being confiscated (I have British and New Zealand passports with all my Middle East visas in my British passport) and I was told that even though it was illegal to retain someone else’s passport it happens all the time, usually on the part of employers, and there was nothing the Embassy could do about it. How’s that for exerting authority?

With this in mind, I was intrigued to read the attached article about expats only obtaining work permits if an Emirati couldn’t do the job. Nice thought, but I didn’t work with any Emiratis while at Khaleej Times.

Here’s an article that was printed on 14/03/2018 in Dubai-based Khaleej Times

The geopolitics of the Middle East are so complicated. The other day I listened to a speech where the speaker maintained that the downfall of the region would be because of a lack of water.

 I don’t concur with this theory. Much of the Middle East has the best technology when it comes to augmenting water supply, mostly to generate desalinated water.

 The problem is that the Middle East has been divided into countries with no respect for tribal allegiances, or differences.

 hen looking up what may happen in the future in the region I came across this article in the journal: “The Cairo Review of Global Affairs”. To view the whole article go to: https://www.thecairoreview.com/essays/dark-geopolitics-of-the-middle-east/

 

The war in Yemen is often a forgotten war in the Middle East. The UN characterizes Yemen as the worst humanitarian catastrophe in the world today.

I follow Yemen because I’ve travelled there. Yes, the group we were traveling with across the Wadi, from Haben to Aden, was kidnapped. Four of the party were shot dead. That was back in 1998.

I know the kidnappers were after Americans but the fact that people were of a different nationality didn’t matter. We were travelling with different tour groups.

This is what The Guardian newspaper said at the time.

“Three British tourists and one Australian were shot dead yesterday at their kidnappers' hide-out in Yemen when security forces stormed the site in a disastrous end to the country's worst hostage crisis.”

What happens between Israel and Palestine always interests me- especially because I travelled from Palestine to Israel, through the Wall, on the West Bank and got a hard time from the Israelis. And I’m neither Israeli nor Arab.

 The B&B at which I stayed in Bethlehem had intermittent water and electricity. Both came from Israel.

 I always remember one man telling me- a person who had been part of the Peace negotiations at different times-that there will never be Peace between Israel and Palestine. It will always be better for Israel to retain the status quo. They will never give up any territory.

 The article below helps to explain why.

 From Israel Pulse

The Saudis in particular, and the Gulf Arabs in general, know about how to get their businesses thriving. These people are traders, wheelers and dealers, and they know how to get the most out of what they do. They do not think in the Western way, and they often have their own moral code with which Westerners often don’t agree. But their businesses do thrive.

 

With the intention of building 16 nuclear reactors in Saudi Arabia, the key Saudis in the project have hired lawyers to push through the deal with the US government. The deal is explained below. (from the Brooking Institute).

 

 

It’s not always easy for a woman in Saudi Arabia, especially when it comes to doing things that require the approval of a male guardian- like working, or even setting up a business. I’ve set up a business in my country (New Zealand) with a female Saudi colleague for precisely this reason.

 According to the article in the UK’s Daily Mail that came out yesterday the rules are changing. Women will be able to establish their own businesses without requiring the permission of a male. This is well and good but many women will still depend on men, nonetheless.

 The aim, evidently, is to increase the percentage of women in the work force from 22 per cent now to one third by 2030.

 This reminds me of an occasion when I was in Riyadh for a conference and a man stood up and argued for more women in the workforce because “women are no less moral than men”.

 

 Alternative energy is big in the Middle East and North Africa, by which I mean it is talked about a great deal. The first phase of world’s largest solar plant, Noor I, was switched on in Ouarzazate, Morocco , about two years ago. The German investment bank, Kfw, the European Investment Bank and the World Bank are backing the project for a total of $900 million. For more on what Morocco has planned go to https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/feb/04/morocco-to-switch-on-first-phase-of-worlds-largest-solar-plant.

 One of the reasons alternative energy has never really taken off in the Middle East is that it, is for the most part, cheaper to use fossil fuels, usually oil, rather than put resources into alternative energy. Masdar City, in Abu Dhabi, is an exception. Masdar is a subsidiary of Mubadala Development Company, an investment company based in the same emirate, and the Government of Abu Dhabi is reported to have provided most of the seed capital. It’s fascinating to walk around Masdar- narrow loans, electric cars and wind mills. Nothing like the rest of the United Arab Emirates.

 With the emphasis on alternative energy, but largely without the commitment to fulfil it, I was fascinated to read this story in Al-Monitor and Palestine Pulse, about solar-powered mosques in Palestine. Maybe this would catch on in other parts of the Middle East?

 This is what was written. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/02/palestine-west-bank-solar-energy-mosque.html?utm_campaign=20180209&utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_term=Daily%20Newsletter

Solar-powered mosque answers prayers in West Bank

Entsar Abu Jahal February 6, 2018

The September 25th referendum on Kurdish independence was greeted with much enthusiam by Kurds in New Zealand. I was staying with one Kurdish family at the time. There was an expectation that a “yes” referendum would lead to independence for the Kurds. Little did they expect that Iraq, Iran and Turkey would all be opposed to it.

Turkey has launched a massive attack on the Kurds in Afrin, Syria, which is on the border with Turkey. I think Turkey hates the Kurds more than it does IS. The Turkish government, no matter who is in power, has always been against Kurdish independence. The latest attacks show this. No matter that the Kurdish are great fighters, and were instrumental in the fight against IS.

This article, that was published in Al –Monitor  explains why the Iraqi Kurds are moving closer to Iran

Iraqi Kurds maneuver to get closer to Iran

Fazel Hawramy

There’s been an almighty crash in the stock markets over the last couple of days with the Dow Jones Industrial Average index tumbling 1,175 points, or 4.6% to close down at 24,345.75 on Monday.

It regained 567 points by the end of the next day.

 Reportedly, this is because of the fear of an interest rate rise in the US and of a stronger global economy. This means that the economic stimulus that markets introduced during the financial crisis of 2008 will now be withdrawn, amid concern that such stimulus will overheat the economy.

 The rocky ride on the US stock market was followed by stock markets around the world- in the UK, the rest of Europe, Asia, Australia and even New Zealand to some extent, although it was closed on Tuesday because it was Waitangi Day.

But what has happened in the Middle East? While stock markets in that region showed some volatility the plunge was more limited. Dubai's stock market closed 1.5 per cent lower and Abu Dhabi's shed nearly 1 per cent in the region's third day of trading for the week. 

The subject of refugees always evokes a mix of emotions. Some people believe that refugees detract from the local community; others that they enhance it and give back more than they take from society. I’m in the latter camp but that’s because I’ve undertaken research on the matter. (I’ve made a documentary on the subject.: “Stepping Up: NZ’s response to the refugee crisis. https://www.luciadore.com/blog/stepping-up-nz-s-response-to-the-refugee-crisis).

I continue to do research on the subject. Indeed, I’m undertaking ongoing research with the Canterbury Refugee Resettlement and Resource Centre (CRRRC) (http://www.canterburyrefugeecentre.org.nz/) where we’re looking at employment and health.

So this article that was published in the Brookings Brief was both timely and enlightening. What will New Zealand learn about the Global Compact for Refugees (GCR).

 

What the UN can learn from Turkey about refugees

Dominating news in the Middle East is Turkey’s assault on the Kurds. This is nothing new. The Turkish government has always hated the Kurds- Recep Erdogen anyway- and have done all it can to wipe them out.

 Much to the chagrin of Turkey, the US has backed and even armed the Kurds in the fight against Islamic State (IS). And the Kurds have won. They are great fighters and are certainly effective.

 But they are caught between a rock and a hard place. If they fight too well, the Turks will set out to destroy the Kurds; if they don’t fight, they will be destroyed anyway. And with the backing of the US, and many of the international community, the Kurds are better armed and equipped than they have been most of the time.

 I read the article in the UK’s The Guardian newspaper below with interest. It explains the ongoing battlefield between the Turks, the Kurds and the Arabs.

 Turkey to extend Syria campaign to Kurdish-controlled Manbij

I’ve thought long and hard about women driiving in Saudi Arabia. I’m a fan of women driving but what no news outlet has said that it will women driving is limited to people who at least 30 years. That’s my friend in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia says anyway. I thought that the article below was interesting.

 

Road To 2030: The Economic Impact Of Women Driving In Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia's decision to allow female drivers to drive has been hailed as a step forward for women's rights in the ultra-conservative kingdom, but it could also have a major economic impact. Driven heavily by the “Saudi Vision 2030,” Saudi Arabia is looking at a variety of changes that will make the country globally competitive and less oil-reliant in the future.

First, part of Saudi Vision 2030 is to grow and encourage more foreign direct investment (FDI) into the country. An immediate effect from allowing women to drive is the new market for women drivers. There are estimates that out of the country’s 30 million people, there are more than eight million women aged 15-54 in Saudi Arabia, with a combination of both Saudis and expats, who will be eligible to drive. This means that various automotive companies will potentially have a new massive market to sell their vehicles, as well as those in the auto supply chain.

Between 2010 and 2014 I sat through numerous debates about the exploitation of oil and gas in Lebanon. The oil and gas blocks were often talked about, and companies like Consolidated Contractors Company, (CCC), one of the largest construction firms in the Middle East, had put in a bid for a block.

Although there was much talk, the political process was slow and the ideal of being self sufficient in terms of energy never happened.

This article from Al Monitor is interesting because the author clearly believes that this time the Lebanese government will make the energy equation work. Great if it were to happen; I doubt that it will though. I’ve heard it all before.

Make up your own mind.

 Lebanon’s energy promise could be regional game changer

The row between Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Egypt and Qatar continues. I doubt that the Gulf countries and Egypt expected it to go on for so long. But Qatar is holding out. I said the row would have been over something other than terrorism since all countries in the region can be accused of that. I thought it would be for commercial reasons that the row had erupted, such as Emirates Airlines versus Qatar Airways, which are competing on similar routes. Anyway, according to the Daily Mail UK, the row is over the fact that Qatar refused to hand over the wife of a UAE opposition leader (not that I knew there was one) who had fled to Britain.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5263901/Qatar-crisis-began-did-not-hand-wanted-wife.html

Qatar's fallout with its neighbours was sparked 'when they refused to hand over the wife of an Emirates opposition leader after he fled to Britain'

Qatar says the pair fled the UAE in 2013 to escape political arrestsThe woman's activist husband was granted indefinite leave to remain in the UK But when she tried to renew her passport at the UAE embassy in Qatar, her application was refused and a demand was made for her extraditionQatar's refusal to comply with the UAE request led to a rise in its social media attacks on Doha,  Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani said

By Anthony Harwood For Mailonline

Published: 05:39 AEDT, 13 January 2018 | Updated: 06:35 AEDT, 13 January 2018

The political machinations between Saudi Arabia and Iran go on and on. Both countries are vying for dominance in the region. Iran is helping Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Assad regime in Syria. Saudi Arabia is trying to wrest control from the Houthi rebels (who are mostly Shi’ite) and have been unwilling to let aid through, which has led to a famine of mega-proportions. As the article below states: “Yemen soon will be the ‘world’s worst humanitarian crisis in 50 years’ if the war continues."

Bruce Riedel January 8, 2018

While Saudi Arabia's economy is suffering due to low oil prices and discontent at home grows, the kingdom is following the protests in Iran with great interest, hoping national issues will distract from Iran's regional advances.

Saudi Arabia is following the unrest in Iran with intense interest, hoping it will force its regional rival to turn inward. The Saudis have little capacity to influence Iranian domestic developments, however, and share many of the same problems as Tehran. The Iranian question is unlikely to help resolve Riyadh’s biggest foreign policy challenge: the expensive quagmire in Yemen that is only getting worse. 

Since the start of the protests Dec. 28 in Mashhad, Iran's second-largest and holies city, the state-controlled media in Saudi Arabia has followed the protests closely. The protesters' call for Iran to spend more money at home and less on foreign adventures in Syria, the Gaza Strip, Iraq and Yemen especially has gotten much attention in Saudi media outlets. The Saudis have been fighting to combat Iranian advances in all these states for years with little success, so they hope that domestic unrest will constrain Iran, especially the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The Saudi media has expressed concern about the sustainability of the unrest. Media articles in the country featured CIA Director Mike Pompeo’s public estimate that the unrest is likely to continue because of the weakness of the Iranian economy. At least one Saudi commentator has expressed concern that the unrest not produce another failed state in the region, which would create too much turmoil. Better to have enough disruption to keep the Iranians focused internally.