Focusing on Jordan in the Middle East is a little unusual in that it is considered one of the most stable societies in the region. To many, it is surprising that it is not.

When I was working in Dubai one Jordanian journalist who was working with me noted the protests that were taking place in Amman and how ineffective the government was. Nothing has changed.

The government is still ineffective and the reforms have not happened. Hence, the public protests at the end of May.

For an explanation of what is happening in Jordan, Osama Al Sharif from Al Monitor gives a good explanation.

I apologise for not having written anything recently. My excuse is that I travelled to the other side of the world, from New Zealand to England. I’ve adjusted to the time zone now. While travelling, Turkey held its general election.

While in Dubai, I met a number of people who had nothing but bad things to say about Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Yet he keeps winning elections. Why is that? Here’s a take on things from Kemal Kirisci, from the Brookings Institute.

 Yesterday’s election in Turkey—which saw a remarkable 87 percent turnout—yielded a victory for strongman Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. This, despite a surprisingly strong opposition challenge that he had not seen before. Unless Erdoğan addresses Turkey’s mounting domestic and foreign policy problems, he and his party will be vulnerable at the local elections in March 2019. To truly sustain his victory, he will need to tone down his populistic rhetoric and cooperate with a parliament that is now much more diverse.

I was talking this evening about how often changes are made in Dubai, the UAE, to visa rules, for example. If changes are made, more money is made. How cynical is that?

 Here’s what happened to the business visa rules for example, as explained in the Entrepreneur Middle East.

 The UAE Cabinet, under the leadership of H.H. Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, has announced its decision to allow 100% foreign ownership of companies in UAE, on Sunday. This comes as part of the country’s decision to adopt a new visa system for international “investors and talents,” introducing a long-term 10-year visa for certain categories of professionals. Sheikh Mohammed also directed the Ministry of Economy to coordinate with concerned parties to implement the resolution, and follow up on its developments, and said that the decision will be enforced by third quarter of this year.

The plan is expected to result in a clear boost for UAE’s emerging small businesses, as the country now has plans to allow for 100% business ownership of all enterprises in the country- an incentive previously only applicable for companies operating in the free zones (whereas other companies were required to have a local partner with minimum 51% ownership). “The new visa system will increase the chances of attracting investors and competencies to the UAE, and thus increase the country's economic competitiveness globally. The global investors' ownership is expected to reach 100% by the end of the year,” said the official statement.

At today's Cabinet meeting, we decided to allow 100% foreign ownership of companies in UAE, with a 10 year visa for investors,scientists, doctors, engineers, entrepreneurs and innovators. The UAE has always welcomed, and always will, innovators and business leaders

Today marks the historic meeting between US President Trump and North Korean President Kim Jong-UN. It is a shame that nothing like this meeting has taken place between the US President and the Iranian President, Houssan Rouhani.What will happen now that the US is not going along with the nuclear deal. Here's a view from experts at Brookings as to what might happen.

Around the Halls: Brookings experts discuss the implications of President Trump’s Iran nuclear deal announcement

Suzanne Maloney, Natan Sachs, Bruce Riedel, Daniel L. Byman, Hady Amr, Mara Karlin, Samantha Gross, Frank A. Rose, Richard Nephew, Steven Pifer, Célia Belin, Dror Michman, Tamara Cofman Wittes, Tanvi Madan, and Kadira Pethiyagoda Tuesday, May 8, 2018

Order from Chaos

Editor's Note:

Is Trump really so popular in Israel?

It is easy to think that everyone’s on board with its stance on Iran - given the current rhetoric coming out of Israel- and with the US. While there are doubters I’m sure there are detractors too. I remember the occasion I entered Jerusalem via the Wall from Bethlehem. When I finally got through the other side- it wasn’t easy- and got on a bus- the Israeli man sitting beside me said: “Not everyone agrees with the Government’s policies”.

Uri Savir from Al Monitor explains.

 The US unilaterally pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal- the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)- has caused chaos in Iran and the EU but also in the international community. The question is whether the deal will stay alive between the EU and Iran? Will the EU manage to renegotiate the deal?

Here is what Al Monitor's Bijan Khajehpour has to say. He is an economist and a managing partner at Atieh International, a Vienna-based international strategic consulting firm.

by Bijan Khajehpour May 29, 2018

 Article Summary

As Iran and other remaining signatories to the JCPOA labor to keep the nuclear deal intact, rising regime cohesion amid Ayatollah Khamenei’s outlining of effective “red lines” indicate the predominance of realism in Tehran.

Reading this article below about Kuwait made me think about the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and the attempt to form a  currency union. There was much chatter about it in 2007 and talk about it has gone on for years. Nothing has happened. The UAE objected to the central bank being located in Saudi; and the GCC countries never agreed on a name for the common currency. That was a fundamental flaw. Any talk of a common currency has stopped. Kuwait has always sat on the fence with this. It seems to have opted out early on. The balancing act that Kuwait is doing with Saudi Arabia and Iran is not much different. Hamad Alboshi at Al Monitor explains.

Reactions to US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have varied around the world, including in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). While Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have strongly backed the US move, other Gulf states have been cautious and declined to adopt a clear stance on the matter. For instance, Kuwait has not echoed the Saudi position and rather announced its understanding of the US decision to withdraw from the deal. The Kuwaiti position on the JCPOA is significant considering its close relationship with Saudi Arabia on the one hand, and its alliance with the United States on the other.

Since gaining independence from Britain in 1961, Kuwait has used different tools to secure its existence. First and foremost, it has relied on international powers for its protection, a trend that became critical after its liberation from Iraq in 1991. In addition, Kuwait has sought to protect itself by balancing its relationships with its neighbors — with the notable exception of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War, when it sided with Iraq. Kuwait has further relied on mediation as a tool of its foreign policy. This tool is not new, but rather boosted in recent years as Kuwait has mediated to end the ongoing war in Yemen. The eruption in 2017 of the crisis between Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain on the one hand and Qatar on the other has further strengthened Kuwait’s role as a mediator. Kuwait benefits from this position because it shows the importance of the country both regionally and globally. While its efforts do not always succeed, the regional and international recognition of its mediator role is critical for its security. Hence, it is important for Kuwait to balance its relationships with Saudi Arabia and Iran — the main rivals in the region — to gain the trust necessary to pursue its mediating efforts. As such, its reaction to the US withdrawal from the JCPOA should be seen as part of this balancing strategy.

Both Saudi Arabia and Iran harbor desires to dominate the region — and both of these desires concern Kuwait. Iran wanted to export its Islamic Revolution in the 1980s, and there are voices in the Islamic Republic who are still committed to that cause. In addition, Iran’s influence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon is not welcomed by the Kuwaitis. Moreover, Tehran’s reported interference in Kuwait — as seen in announcements of the discovery of alleged cells associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — is seen as a threat. At the same time, despite the close relationship between Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, there is a belief among some in Kuwait that the country would have been next in line had the Saudis succeeded in their efforts to coerce Qatar last year.

There is a myth that Dubai, in the UAE, has a lot of money. This is not true since it is the emirate of Abu Dhabi that has the money, especially with its oil income. Certainly, the outlook for the oil price in 2018 is looking good forecast to sit at an average of about US $57 a barrel. A 5.7 per cent increase over 2017. Indeed, the price of Brent crude touched US $80 a barrel for the first time in about four years in early May.

So it is no surprise that the UAE has put its hands up for reconstructing Mosul’s Grand al-Nuri Mosque, famous for its eight-century-old leaning minaret, known as al-Hadba minaret (or hunchback) that was blown up by Islamic State militants last year. It will cost $50.4 million, at least.

This is what Adnan Abu Zeed from Al Monitor said about it.

 When the Al-Nouri Mosque and the adjacent al-Hadba minaret in Mosul were bombed by the Islamic State (IS) on June 21, 2017, many thought that the landmark mosque and its “hunchback” minaret most famous for its leaning structure were gone for good. 

But today, there is some hope of restoring both structures. The reconstruction of the mosque and the minaret will start in June, said Nofal Sultan al-Akoub, the governor of Iraq’s northern province of Ninevah, on May 6. 

There is so much happening in the Middle East I wish I was there. So much material and so many insights. One of the big issues is the ditching of the Iran nuclear deal by the US. What now?. Can it be salvaged by Europe? For some thinking on the future and what might happens, here are some thoughts by staff at Al-Monitor.

Since President Donald Trump fulfilled his campaign promise of breaking the nuclear deal between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany (P5+1), Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has been working to determine whether the deal can still be salvaged.

After visiting China, Zarif, who was Iran’s lead negotiator during the marathon nuclear talks, traveled to Moscow. He called the Russian opposition on the US exit from the nuclear deal “hopeful.” He said he would later travel to Brussels and continue discussions with European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini on “guaranteeing Iran’s interests within" the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Zarif tweeted, “Good and substantive meetings with counterparts in Beijing and Moscow; heading to meet with EU High Representative and E3 foreign ministers in Brussels. Will soon determine how P4+1 can guarantee Iran’s benefits under the JCPOA, and preserve this unique achievement of diplomacy.” Zarif’s reference to the US absence in this round of talks was addressed by calling it the P4+1 rather than the P5+1. E3 in this case stands for France, Germany and the United Kingdom.

Zarif also discussed current events, tying the US decision to move its capital to Jerusalem to a long trend where the United States ignores international consensus and agreements. “Unfortunately, opposition to international agreements and world agreements for the American regime has become normal,” he said in Moscow.

We can all speculate as to what may happen in the Middle East now that the US has pulled out of the deal designed to prevent Iran developing a nuclear programme.This is what the National Iranian-American Council (NIAC) says about the US pulling out of the Iran deal.

Washington, DC – NIAC President Trita Parsi issued the following statement in response to reports that President Trump declared he would snap back all nuclear-related sanctions under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran nuclear deal, and impose new sanctions:

“Donald Trump has committed what will go down as one of the greatest acts of self-sabotage in America’s modern history. He has put the United States on a path towards war with Iran and may trigger a wider regional war and nuclear arms race.

“This is a crisis of choice. Trump has taken a functioning arms control deal that prevented an Iranian nuclear bomb and turned it into a crisis that can lead to war.

“This is not America first, this is Trump leasing out America’s foreign policy interests to the highest bidder. The only parties applauding this move are Benjamin Netanyahu and Mohammed Bin Salman, who have consistently chosen to undermine regional security to advance their own short-sighted political fortunes. Trump’s reckless decision is a betrayal of the national interests of the United States of America that could haunt us for generations.

In Iran, the robing ceremony of Ahmad Khomeini, the great-grandson of Islamic Republic founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, has stirred some debate about the Shiite clergy. The traditional ceremony where he was given his turban comes against the backdrop of a process in which clerical titles in the country have increasingly come to be driven by political rather than scholarly considerations, with virtually all factions, parties and groups using ranks in the Shiite theological hierarchy for their own political purposes. But has it always been like this in Iran?

Before engaging in the debate on the politicization of clerical titles, it is perhaps best to explain their origins. In broad terms, Shiite clerics fall under five categories: Seqat al-Islam, Hujjat al-Islam, Hujjat-al-Islam wal-Muslemin, Ayatollah and Ayatollah al-Uzma.

Before the reign of the Pahlavi dynasty (1925-1979), titles like Ayatollah or Seqat-al-Islam were used chiefly as honorifics, albeit rarely and only with reference to a limited number of prominent Islamic scholars. For instance, Muhammad ibn Ya'qub al-Kulayni (864-941) was a well-known Shiite scholar and hadith (sayings of the Prophet Muhammad) collector. His important hadith collection Kitab al-Kafi, which is respected by both Sunnis and Shiites, earned him the honorific Seqat al-Islam, which means “Trusted by Islam.” Indeed, to this day, Islamic scholars commonly refer to Kulayni when mentioning the term Seqat al-Islam. There is also the example of Iranian-born Abu Hamid Muhammad ibn Muhammad al-Ghazali, one of the most prominent philosophers, jurists and mystics of Sunni Islam. He was often referred to as Hujjat al-Islam, which means “Proof of Islam.”

From the Qajar era (1794-1925) until the early Pahlavi period, many great scholars and high-ranking clerics in Iran were still referred to with simple titles, including the honorific “Sheikh,” which is used to refer to clerics who are not descendants of the Prophet Muhammad.

In 1921, Sheikh Abdolkarim Haeri Yazdi, a high-ranking teacher in the holy Iraqi city of Karbala who had established a successful seminary in the central Iranian city of Arak, established the Qom Seminary. Known as the “Founder Ayatollah,” he organized seminary affairs, including standardizing courses and ranks. Clerical titles have since gradually been employed to designate scholarly achievements. Of note, the Islamic Republic’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, was one of Haeri Yazdi’s students.

In recent months we have seen the Arab Gulf countries getting closer to Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE in particular. This is not surprising. israel, the UAE and Saudi are all anti-Iran, for different reasons. Although Iran is Islamic it is Shi'ite- a brand of Islam that Sunnis- the UAE and Saudi in particular, detest.

Certainly from the UAE, and from Saudi too, you can't telephone Israel directly, they do do business with the each other. In fact, in the UAE I telephoned Israel and sent an email. The telephone rang and rang. At that stage I didn't realise that you couldn't contact Israel. I hear its the same in Saudi.

Given the complex dynamics between the various parties it's surprising that the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, reportedly said to a group of Jewish Americans that it is time the Palestians accepted a peace agreement and that Israel should be entilted to live peacefully in its homeland. This happened in March it was reported. His father, King Salman, has commented that the Saudis stand behind Palestinian, according to a report by Reuters. Here is what he reportedly said.

Reuters Staff

RIYADH (Reuters) - King Salman reiterated Saudi Arabia’s support for a Palestinian state after his son and heir apparent said Israelis were entitled to live peacefully on their own land - a rare statement by an Arab leader.

The war in Yemen is really a war between the Saudi, and the UAE and Yemenis loyal to the current president (or some would say Iran). This article from Brookings Institute discusses what the outcome of a long drawn out war might be.

The killing of a prominent Houthi leader in Yemen by a Saudi airstrike this month has prompted threats of retaliation by the Houthis and other pro-Iranian militants in the region, including threats specifically against Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (known as MBS). Could that raise new questions about Saudi leadership succession?

By Bruce Riedel, Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, Center for Middle East Policy

Director - The Intelligence Project

BillIsrael is intriguing. We rarely hear about what goes on there, more often hearing about Palestine. What is interesting is the rise of the far right in that country, a phenemonon that the US and the West generally seldom speaks about. In this artice by Al Monitor we learn what is happening.

 Shlomi Eldar April 30, 2018

Article Summary

The far-right Im Tirzu group is behind a hate campaign targeting the US-based New Israel Fund.

The far-right movement Im Tirzu began a smear campaign against the New Israel Fund last week. The timing offers further evidence of the pivotal role Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plays in fanning flames of hate in Israel.

I’m curious as to what is happening in Palestine and the PLO. Not only have I visited the West Bank but I have also spoken with some of the leaders in the organisation. I even had dinner (along with the Gazans) at the home of Munib Masri, who is a key man in Palestine since he owns most of it and has Yasser Arafat’s closest friend.

So with the PLO restructure and is it overdue?

Here’s a take on it from Al Monitor

 Talk of PLO restructuring

 Palestinian council meeting

A study by Transparency International released in February showed a slip in Israel’s corruption ranking, placing it 34th globally out of 180 countries.

According to the survey, Israel is perceived by local experts as being among the least corrupt countries in the Middle East but among the most corrupt in the developed world.

The 2017 Corruption Perception Index placed Israel 23rd out of 35 OECD nations with a score of 62.In comparison, in 2016 Israel ranked 28th globally with a score of 64, ranking it the 22nd-least corrupt among the OECD.

Although this survey is about corruption rather than democracy the two go hand in hand. There is not only growing apartheid in Israel but there is also an erosion of democracy, as this article by Al Monitor points out.

Battle erupts over Israeli High Court’s independence

So today, Wednesday 18 April is the first day in 30 years that people in Saudi Arabia can go to the cinema. But although the cinema has been banned to the public, those living in compounds, usually ex-pats, have still been able to go to their own set-up. People have also bought pirated DVDs, rather than going to the movies.

That’s true of many people living in Dubai. Although I went to the movies a great deal initially I soon took to watching DVDs at home, by preference. When I watched “The Wolf of Wall Street” at the cinema I wondered why it seemed so short. When I watched the movie again, probably in the UK, it was so much longer. One hour had been cut out of it.

 Let’s hope that doesn’t happen in Saudi Arabia where censorship laws are bound to prevail.

 Here’s an article about cinemas in Saudi Arabia in Khaleej Times, a Dubai-based national newspaper, for which I used to work.

 AMC Entertainment has been granted the first licence to operate cinemas.

I read this article with interest since it explains Saudi policy - and with it the policy of countries like the UAE. The Gulf countries are certainly anti- Iran, despite the fact that nearly all the trading families in the UAE are from southern Iran. And that companies in the emirate Ras Al Khaimah do a lot of business with their closest neighbour.

 The Gulf countries like to be anti Iran but all, especially the UAE, do its best to stay on good terms with it.

 Being anti-Iran means being pro-Trump. This is best illustrated in Dubai with the Trump Estates by Damac Properties, the largest private property developer in the Middle East. The Trump Estates is described this way: “DAMAC Hills is an exclusive gated community perched on a private island amidst the lush greens and fairways of the Trump International Golf Club Dubai.”

Article summary

In response to a growing rift between Riyadh's regional policies and some actions by President Donald Trump, King Salman has reaffirmed long-held alliances while distancing the kingdom from Washington.

The rift between Qatar and Saudi Arabia and the UAE has not yet been resolved. On the surface, it doesn’t appear to have moved it all. But according to this article from Al Monitor there are signs that the rift might be reducing. It’s even suggested that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are not as close as they once were.

Qatar hires Trump-linked lobbyist ahead of emir’s visit

By Bryant Harris

 Article Summary

Doha is turning to well-connected Republican operatives amid an intra-Gulf spat.

The animosity between Israelis and Palestinians is ongoing, but it is not until you’ve been do you understand how much tension there is. That’s what I think. And I’m neither Israeli nor Palestinian.

I was travelling into Palestine over the Allenby Crossing, from Jordan, with a group of Palestinians. We waited at the border crossing for about eight hours, while the Israeli guards played ball games, and played around generally.

These people were horrible to everyone, including me, until they saw I had a New Zealand passport and then they were so nice. What a change in attitude. I was told by a British lawyer that he had had a similar experience at Tel Aviv airport. Since he was English he was allowed into the country but a colleague from the same law firm- a Palestian-British man- was detained in jail overnight. Evidently, he’s had that experience many times when visiting family.

I had many experiences on that trip, one of them being witness to everyone standing up when Mahmoud Abbas took the stage. That was at a conference in Bethelem.

With this in mind, I read the article below with interest. It makes sense when I recall a Palestinian, who had been involved in peace talks, who said there would never be a negotiated peace with Israel, since the “status quo” will always be better for the Israelis.