How will Trump's return change the Middle East?
Trump will restrict Iran's nuclear programme, weaken its economic position, and keep it on the defensive in negotiations, writes Ahmad Abdel-Rahman.
The world woke up a few days ago to the news that former US President Donald Trump had won his third presidential race and that his party had achieved a comfortable majority in the Senate with 52 seats. At the same time, the Republicans have won a narrow majority in the House of Representatives.
The world watched the results like every US election and anticipated their impact. However, it may seem too early for the Middle East to determine Trump's approach to a region experiencing turbulent events. His election may lead to unexpected results, which is appropriate for a personality that is difficult to predict and does not embrace a clear approach to the world.
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf
Considering what is known about Trump's history and personality and taking into account that his previous term may not resemble his current term, it is still expected that his policy towards Saudi Arabia and the Arabian Gulf states will be characterised by certain features that reflect the broad outlines of his first presidential term. It is also expected that Trump's policy will reflect the fact that the US administration's policy towards the Arabian Gulf region is concerned with a set of strategic, economic, and political factors, the most prominent being regional security, Iranian influence, energy security, and stability of oil markets, combating terrorism, security cooperation, and the Arab Israeli conflict.
The Trump administration will likely adopt a policy of strengthening security partnerships and enhancing military relations and security cooperation with the Arabian Gulf States - and Saudi Arabia in particular - focusing on arms sales and close military cooperation. This could include joint military exercises, improving regional defence capabilities, and strengthening the US military presence in the region as part of a broader strategy to reduce regional external threats.
In general, it is expected that Trump will maintain his approach, which tends to ignore any restrictions that may hinder the accomplishment of forms of cooperation that achieve American strategic interests.
Trump will also seek to strengthen investment and economic relations between the US, Saudi Arabia, and the Arabian Gulf states. This could include supporting mega investment projects launched by Saudi Vision 2030, boosting bilateral trade, and investing in oil and gas. However, oil prices are a potential point of tension, with global prices likely to fall as a result of the policies of the incoming Trump administration.
Overall, there will be a trend toward achieving mutual economic interests. The first Trump administration showed a preference for direct trade relations.
How to deal with Iran?
It is widely believed that Trump will adopt a tough policy toward Iran. The irony is that he spoke positively about Iran on several occasions during his first presidential term in the White House, and he wanted to conclude an agreement with it. However, the biggest variable in this regard should not be underestimated: recent improvements in Saudi-Iran relations, which have an important impact on reducing potential escalation between America and Iran.
In fact, Saudi Arabia's ability to influence American foreign policy has pushed Iran toward the Saudi-Iranian agreement. Iran wants to avoid what it faced during Trump's first years when it was surprised by the ability of the Arabian Gulf states—and Saudi Arabia in particular—to contribute to shaping American foreign policy.
In the foreseeable future, Trump is expected to be tough on Iran. His policies will include nuclear restrictions and a regional security guarantee. Iran will be weakened economically, and he will be keen to keep it on the defensive in negotiations.
The Gulf factor, not just the Israeli factor, has to be considered in its toughness towards Tehran. Netanyahu's pressure to target the nuclear programme may be the hardest test for Trump. If he ignores it, it may lead to a rift between the two countries.
Trump and Israel
One of the Trump administration's priorities will be to strengthen the so-called Abraham Accords to normalise relations between Israel and Arab countries. He may pressure Saudi Arabia to join these agreements, as happened at the end of his first term.
However, this may require a major challenge in the form of Israeli concessions towards the Palestinian issue. This means that Trump will need to balance his support for Israel and achieving the satisfaction of the Gulf States, especially with Saudi Arabia's clear position on the need to find a just solution to the Palestinian issue, and the need for Israel to make real concessions.
Saudi Arabia has drawn a clear framework for its acceptance of joining any formula for normalisation with Israel. It has gone beyond merely demanding that Israel declare a position agreeing to the establishment of a Palestinian state to demanding that it adopt a realistic plan of action, supported not only by Arabs but by Europe, by forming an alliance to restore the two-state solution.
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