Will King Salman abdicate?

Last week saw the reshuffle of the ruling family in Saudi Arabia, something that many observers expected to happen a couple of years ago. By Western standards, the hope, and expectation, is that the country will become more open and transparent, with a respect for human rights. For some in Saudi, there might be the same expectations, for others there may be not. The views across the Kingdom differ widely.

A couple of years ago when I was attending a conference in Riyadh (wearing the abbaya, but not the head gear) one presenter, who argued that Saudi Arabia should allow more women to join the work force, said “women are no less moral than men”.  It's a comment I have never forgotten.

Another presenter who was told to stop speaking by the religious police who marched in to the conference room, argued that the government should award contracts to construction firms other than Saudi Bin Laden. That comment didn’t go down well with the authorities.

 In Dubai, I interviewed and wrote a story about a member of the Bin Laden Group (he was into real estate rather than construction) who was Osama’s half-brother, who told me he didn’t know Osama at all. I thought the story wouldn’t be published. It was.

 What these stories ultimately mean is that in a country like Saudi Arabia, what we think should happen, and what actually happens, can be quite different. This is as true for the ruling family as everything else.

 This article by Bruce Reidel helps to explain the intrigues of the ruling family.

Will King Salman abdicate? By Bruce Reidel at the Centre of Middle East Policy writes.

This week, King Salman abd al Aziz al Saud fired his crown prince, Muhammad bin Nayef (MBN), and elevated his favorite son, Prince Muhammad bin Salman (MBS), to be the heir apparent. No king had ever fired a sitting crown prince before, but Salman has now done it twice in just two years. In fact, Saudi Arabia has had six crown princes in the last six years: two died in office (Sultan and Nayef), one became King (Salman), two were appointed and then fired (Muqrin and MBN), and now MBS in the heir apparent. It’s a study in transition, disorder, and discontinuity—not stability and order. What was once a very predictable royal family line of succession has become unpredictable.

 Family affair

The line of succession in the kingdom has moved laterally among the sons of the founder of the modern kingdom, Ibn Saud, for over 60 years. Salman is the end of the line of kings who could trace their legitimacy to Ibn Saud directly. MBS is going to have to establish his own legitimacy at a time when the kingdom faces an acute economic challenge from low oil prices and the region is in enormous turmoil. The Saudi royal family are survivors, but they are in very stormy weather.

The question now arises: Will the king abdicate the throne and turn power over to the son he clearly trusts? Serious newspapers have raised the possibility. King Salman has already given his son unprecedented power. His nickname is Mr. Everything because he has been given control of the military, the economy (including the oil industry), and even control of the entertainment business. He has been the de facto foreign minister for the last two years, conducting all the important foreign policy issues and visits, including setting up President Donald Trump’s historic visit to the kingdom. He will presumably represent Saudi Arabia at the G-20 meeting in Hamburg.

Salman is 81 and suffers from pre-dementia. The state of his health is a closely guarded secret. He has been very busy this year, with a month-long trip to Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, China, and Japan, plus attending the Arab summit in Jordan, as well as hosting Trump and 50 Muslim leaders. So he, apparently, is capable of being in power for some time to come. His brothers have often lived into their 90s.

Big questions looming

Thus, there is speculation that Salman will retire, abdicate, and turn power over to his son. There is precedent. King Saud gave up the throne in 1964. But Saud did so literally at the point of a tank barrel after a decade long power struggle with his brother Faysal. Only when the powerful clerical Wahhabi establishment and the military turned on Saud did he go off to exile in Cairo. Nothing like that scenario is in the cards today. It also shows just how hard it is to remove a king even when he is clearly a failure.