What the absence of a regional security system in the Middle East could mean for regional conflict

In this article Ahmad Abdul-Rahman explains how the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, in the absence of a regional security system, could play out.

The Middle East does not have a regional security system. Instead, the region relies on three factors to give it security: a balance of power, a balance of interests, and peace.

These will not achieved by an American-Russian-Chinese arrangement, nor at the hands of the conflicting regional powers on the Arab stage. That is because the three necessary factors for regional security are absent and there are differing views of the importance of the Middle East to the global economy. International powers also compete with one another, amid a Russian expansion, an American decline, a phased Chinese expansion, and European weakness. Regional powers are playing a dangerous geopolitical game on the Arab stage.

The Arabs- especially because the "Arab Spring" has paralyzed a number of countries in the region, such as Iraq, Tunisia, and Bahrain, are doomed to confrontation on four fronts simultaneously: the front of the Arab-Israeli conflict that preoccupied them for a century; the front of the Iranian imperial project, which now has sites in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza, the "Neo-Ottoman" front, which establishes military bases in northern Syria, northern Iraq, Qatar and western Libya, and wants a share of gas and oil in the eastern Mediterranean; the front of terrorism represented by the "Muslim Brotherhood", "Al-Qaeda", "ISIS" and other terrorist organizations.

The facts bear this theory out. The peace process began with Dr. Henry Kissinger at the Geneva Conference in 1973 and the disengagement agreements in the Sinai and Golan. The resumption of the peace process at the Madrid Conference in 2972after the "Desert Storm" war led to isolated agreements and incomplete peace. What Kissinger searches for, says Martin Indyk in a new book, "Master of the Game: Henry Kissinger and the Art of Middle Eastern Diplomacy, is a 'No Peace Order.'"

Kissinger's goal in the peace process was to "give Israel time to build its capabilities and reduce its isolation, and to give the Arabs time to tire of conflict and recognize the benefits of working with a strong Israeli neighbour." Therefore, Kissinger refused to mediate between Jordan and Israel after the October 1973 war, unlike what he did with Egypt and Syria, He admitted that he had made a "big mistake" after the Arabs announced at the Rabat summit (Rabat is Morocco's capital). that the "Palestinian Liberation Organization" (PLO) was the only legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. The lesson that everyone has now learned is that a regional order based on a balance of power "will not survive without addressing grievances and problems."

The lesson written on the wall for everyone is that arranging a regional system based on a balance of power alone without a balance of interests, without finding a just solution to the Palestinian issue, and without ending Iranian and Turkish military intervention in the Arab countries, regional conflict will remain.

This is because Israel, with American support, wants to keep the land it has already seized from other countries in the region as well as maintaining a qualitative military advantage over them. Iran is building a military force at home and "six armies" of Shiite militias abroad to defend it against Arab countries. It wants to excel over the rest of the regional powers and expel America from West Asia and achieve its imperial project. Turkey, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, stands within the NATO alliance, but extends its hand to the Russians. It also works to expand its influence in the Middle East and the Caucasus within the "neo-Ottoman" empire. The Arabs, who bear the greatest burden in confronting fundamentalist terrorism, both Sunni and Shiite, are subjected to Persian and Ottoman penetration and this is woven into their social fabric. These come into play when the Arab countries are seeking to achieve their geographic and geopolitical ambitions.

It is an illusion to talk about a regional security system at the expense of the Arabs. The biggest delusion is that each side acted as the strongest player and perhaps the only one who guarantees victory and the future. Today, the region is in the process of counting down the collision of dreams with reality, if not nightmares. Moreover, the equation in the absence of a balance of power, interests and peace is the weakness of power in facing the challenges the region is going through

These will not achieved by an American-Russian-Chinese arrangement, nor at the hands of the conflicting regional powers on the Arab stage. That is because the three necessary factors for regional security are absent and there are differing views of the importance of the Middle East to the global economy. International powers also compete with one another, amid a Russian expansion, an American decline, a phased Chinese expansion, and European weakness. Regional powers are playing a dangerous geopolitical game on the Arab stage.

The Arabs- especially because the "Arab Spring" has paralyzed a number of countries in the region- are doomed to confrontation on four fronts simultaneously: the front of the Arab-Israeli conflict that preoccupied them for a century; the front of the Iranian imperial project, which now has sites in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Gaza; the "Neo-Ottoman" front, which establishes military bases in northern Syria, northern Iraq, Qatar and western Libya, and wants a share of gas and oil in the eastern Mediterranean; the front of terrorism represented by the "Muslim Brotherhood", "Al-Qaeda", "ISIS" and other terrorist organizations.

The facts bear this theory out. The peace process began with Dr. Henry Kissinger at the Geneva Conference in 1973 and the disengagement agreements in the Sinai and Golan. The resumption of the peace process at the Madrid Conference in 1991 after the "Desert Storm" war led to isolated agreements and incomplete peace. What Kissinger searches for, says Martin Indyk in a new book, "

Kissinger's goal in the peace process was to "give Israel time to build its capabilities and reduce its isolation, and to give the Arabs time to tire of conflict and recognize the benefits of working with a strong Israeli neighbor." Therefore, Kissinger refused to mediate between Jordan and Israel after the October 1973 war, unlike what he did with Egypt and Syria, He admitted that he had made a "big mistake" after the Arabs announced at the Rabat summit (Rabat is Morocco's capital). that the "Palestinian Liberation Organization" (PLO) was the only legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. The lesson that everyone has now learned is that a regional order based on a balance of power "will not survive without addressing grievances and problems."

The lesson written on the wall for everyone is that arranging a regional system based on a balance of power alone without a balance of interests, without finding a just solution to the Palestinian issue, and without ending Iranian and Turkish military intervention in the Arab countries, regional conflict will remain.

This is because Israel, with American support, wants to keep the land it has already seized from other countries in the region as well as maintaining a qualitative military advantage over them. Iran is building a military force at home and "six armies" of Shiite militias abroad to defend it against Arab countries. It wants to excel over the rest of the regional powers and expel America from West Asia and achieve its imperial project. Turkey, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, stands within the NATO alliance, but extends its hand to the Russians. It also works to expand its influence in the Middle East and the Caucasus within the "neo-Ottoman" empire. The Arabs, who bear the greatest burden in confronting fundamentalist terrorism, both Sunni and Shiite, are subjected to Persian and Ottoman penetration and this is woven into their social fabric. These come into play when the Arab countries are seeking to achieve their geographic and geopolitical ambitions.

It is an illusion to talk about a regional security system at the expense of the Arabs. The biggest delusion is that each side acted as the strongest player and perhaps the only one who guarantees victory and the future. Today, the region is in the process of counting down the collision of dreams with reality, if not nightmares. Moreover, the equation in the absence of a balance of power, interests and peace is the weakness of power in facing the challenges the region is going through.

Kissinger's goal in the peace process was to "give Israel time to build its capabilities and reduce its isolation, and to give the Arabs time to tire of conflict and recognize the benefits of working with a strong Israeli neighbor." Therefore, Kissinger refused to mediate between Jordan and Israel after the October 1973 war, unlike what he did with Egypt and Syria, He admitted that he had made a "big mistake" after the Arabs announced at the Rabat summit (Rabat is Morocco's capital). that the "Palestinian Liberation Organization" (PLO) was the only legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. The lesson that everyone has now learned is that a regional order based on a balance of power "will not survive without addressing grievances and problems."

The lesson written on the wall for everyone is that arranging a regional system based on a balance of power alone without a balance of interests, without finding a just solution to the Palestinian issue, and without ending Iranian and Turkish military intervention in the Arab countries, regional conflict will remain.

This is because Israel, with American support, wants to keep the land it has already seized from other countries in the region as well as maintaining a qualitative military advantage over them. Iran is building a military force at home and "six armies" of Shiite militias abroad to defend it against Arab countries. It wants to excel over the rest of the regional powers and expel America from West Asia and achieve its imperial project. Turkey, led by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, stands within the NATO alliance, but extends its hand to the Russians. It also works to expand its influence in the Middle East and the Caucasus within the "neo-Ottoman" empire. The Arabs, who bear the greatest burden in confronting fundamentalist terrorism, both Sunni and Shiite, are subjected to Persian and Ottoman penetration and this is woven into their social fabric. These come into play when the Arab countries are seeking to achieve their geographic and geopolitical ambitions.

It is an illusion to talk about a regional security system at the expense of the Arabs. The biggest delusion is that each side acts as the strongest player and perhaps the only one who guarantees victory and the future. Today, the region is in the process of counting down the collision of dreams with reality, if not nightmares. Moreover, the equation in the absence of a balance of power, interests and peace is the weakness that the region is going through.