So today, Wednesday 18 April is the first day in 30 years that people in Saudi Arabia can go to the cinema. But although the cinema has been banned to the public, those living in compounds, usually ex-pats, have still been able to go to their own set-up. People have also bought pirated DVDs, rather than going to the movies.

That’s true of many people living in Dubai. Although I went to the movies a great deal initially I soon took to watching DVDs at home, by preference. When I watched “The Wolf of Wall Street” at the cinema I wondered why it seemed so short. When I watched the movie again, probably in the UK, it was so much longer. One hour had been cut out of it.

 Let’s hope that doesn’t happen in Saudi Arabia where censorship laws are bound to prevail.

 Here’s an article about cinemas in Saudi Arabia in Khaleej Times, a Dubai-based national newspaper, for which I used to work.

 AMC Entertainment has been granted the first licence to operate cinemas.

I read this article with interest since it explains Saudi policy - and with it the policy of countries like the UAE. The Gulf countries are certainly anti- Iran, despite the fact that nearly all the trading families in the UAE are from southern Iran. And that companies in the emirate Ras Al Khaimah do a lot of business with their closest neighbour.

 The Gulf countries like to be anti Iran but all, especially the UAE, do its best to stay on good terms with it.

 Being anti-Iran means being pro-Trump. This is best illustrated in Dubai with the Trump Estates by Damac Properties, the largest private property developer in the Middle East. The Trump Estates is described this way: “DAMAC Hills is an exclusive gated community perched on a private island amidst the lush greens and fairways of the Trump International Golf Club Dubai.”

Article summary

In response to a growing rift between Riyadh's regional policies and some actions by President Donald Trump, King Salman has reaffirmed long-held alliances while distancing the kingdom from Washington.

The rift between Qatar and Saudi Arabia and the UAE has not yet been resolved. On the surface, it doesn’t appear to have moved it all. But according to this article from Al Monitor there are signs that the rift might be reducing. It’s even suggested that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are not as close as they once were.

Qatar hires Trump-linked lobbyist ahead of emir’s visit

By Bryant Harris

 Article Summary

Doha is turning to well-connected Republican operatives amid an intra-Gulf spat.

What will happen when the war in Syria ends is finally being discussed, as this article by Al Monitor shows. This has happened before. Back in 2013 there has a meeting by the Western allies in Dubai to discuss investment opportunities in post-war Syria. I was told that Assad would step down soon. What a waste of time that was.

At least the three countries- Turkey, Iran and Russia- seem to be more realistic as to what will happen post war, even if they have different end goals.

 Ankara summit focuses on Syria's fate once war ends

Maxim A. Suchkov April 6, 2018

Article Summary

It's been a week since I wrote something for this blog. I've been shifting house and all that entails- what a performance. I've also managed to put out one press release, on a new data company in New Zealand that focuses on insurance. The release is attached with a few bits added, such as the exciting times had by the executives in Las Vegas.

Press Release

 Vallum on road to international expansion

 26 March 2018, New Zealand New Zealand InsurTech start-up, Vallum, was one of 25 international early-stage businesses chosen to pitch at the Global InsurTech Roadshow, which was held in Frankfurt, Germany earlier this month.

 The prestigious Goethe Business School organised the event in cooperation with InsurTech Asia.

The animosity between Israelis and Palestinians is ongoing, but it is not until you’ve been do you understand how much tension there is. That’s what I think. And I’m neither Israeli nor Palestinian.

I was travelling into Palestine over the Allenby Crossing, from Jordan, with a group of Palestinians. We waited at the border crossing for about eight hours, while the Israeli guards played ball games, and played around generally.

These people were horrible to everyone, including me, until they saw I had a New Zealand passport and then they were so nice. What a change in attitude. I was told by a British lawyer that he had had a similar experience at Tel Aviv airport. Since he was English he was allowed into the country but a colleague from the same law firm- a Palestian-British man- was detained in jail overnight. Evidently, he’s had that experience many times when visiting family.

I had many experiences on that trip, one of them being witness to everyone standing up when Mahmoud Abbas took the stage. That was at a conference in Bethelem.

With this in mind, I read the article below with interest. It makes sense when I recall a Palestinian, who had been involved in peace talks, who said there would never be a negotiated peace with Israel, since the “status quo” will always be better for the Israelis.

Continuing on the “Bolton” theme I’m posting an article that appeared in Al Monitor magazine. So its not just parts of the Middle East who are worried about the impact of the appointment of John Bolton – of course the UAE and Saudi Arabia agree with the appointment- but Russia too is concerned about the consequences- that the Iran deal won’t hold and there will be war in the Middle East 9as if the West doesn’t interfere enough in the Middle East).

 No doubt if Iran is attacked it will be disastrous for not only Iran but for Syria too.

 We can only wait and see what happens but it looks as if the outcome is not going to be good for the region and the rest of the world.

Russians fear Bolton may doom Iran deal, stoke arms raceMaxim A. Suchkov March 23, 2018 Article SummaryJohn Bolton's upcoming role as national security adviser is controversial not only in the United States; it's raising eyebrows, and concerns, around much of the rest of the world

MOSCOW — Hours after US President Donald Trump announced that H.R. McMaster had departed as national security adviser and would be replaced by John Bolton — a longtime detractor of Iran, Iraq, Russia and North Korea, among others — Russia was among the first to react to the news.

Though some Russian officials reacted cautiously and expressed a willingness to work with Washington regardless of who Trump puts into key foreign policy posts, others made it clear that Moscow is genuinely concerned by the course American foreign policy has taken in recent months. Bolton, who was named to the position March 22 — near the 15th anniversary of the start of the US campaign in Iraq — advocated for that war and still does. It's an understatement to say he is seen as a controversial figure.

I read this petition from NIAC with interest, because it explains why Trump picked John Bolton as national security adviser. Whether the argument is believable or not, it is at least an Iranian perspective, something that is largely lacking.

Washington, DC - Trita Parsi, President of the National Iranian American Council, issued the following statement regarding the appointment of John Bolton as National Security Advisor:

“Donald Trump may have just effectively declared war on Iran. With the appointment of John Bolton, and nomination of Mike Pompeo at State, Trump is clearly putting together a war cabinet. As the world awaits Trump’s May 12 decision as to whether he will abandon the Iran nuclear deal, all of the signs now point to a decision to move to war footing.

“Bolton is an unhinged advocate for waging World War III. He has explicitly called for bombing Iran for the past ten years and has suggested the U.S. engage in nuclear first strikes in North Korea. Bolton’s first order of business will be to convince Trump to exit the Iran nuclear deal and lay the groundwork for the war he has urged over the past decade. Additionally, he has has called for ending all visas for Iranians, shipping bunker busting weapons to Israel, and supporting the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) terrorist organization and other separatist groups inside of Iran. The Iranian-American community and our pro-peace, pro-human rights allies will organize to stop Bolton’s plans from becoming a reality.

US President, Donald Trump, caused chaos in the world economy when he announced that the US would impose 25 per cent tariffs on steel imports and 10 per cent on aluminium imports on the grounds of "national security". There are fears that this move will trigger a trade war, particularly with parties such as China, the country's 10th largest importer of steel.

According to a report from Reuters, the US is the world's largest steel importing nation, buying 35.6 million tonnes of the building raw material in 2017. Canada is the largest importer of these products to the US, followed by Brazil. Mexico comes 4th and China is only 10th.  Canada and Mexico have already won exemptions from the tariffs, on the grounds that they are key allies and are therefore essential to the US' military security.

The UAE is also seeking an exemption, based on national security concerns. The UAE is the country's third biggest exporter of aluminium products.

New Zealand is considering seeking an exemption too, although aluminium products constitute only a tiny percentage of business to the US - NZD 23 million in total.

Consequently, New Zealand doesn't constitute a threat to the US so should be spared from any tariffs, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said.

There is uncertainty as to whether the Iran nuclear deal will continue, especially whether the US will remain committed to it. There is a course of action that will ensure that there is a continued Iranian deal as is explained in the article below.by

 Bijan Khajehpour for Al Monitor

One of the current concerns of international companies planning to do business in Iran is the threat of a US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the reintroduction of US secondary sanctions. While EU officials are trying to think of mechanisms to counter potential future sanctions against European companies and banks, the more important challenge is how to entice Iran to remain committed to the nuclear deal, even if Washington withdraws.

Iranian officials have been clear that Tehran would only stay committed if it receives enough benefits from staying in the deal. To underline this position, while in London on Feb. 22, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said: “If the same policy of confusion and uncertainties about the JCPOA continues, if companies and banks are not working with Iran, we cannot remain in a deal that has no benefit for us.”

This article will propose a course of action that could offer incentives for a continued Iranian commitment to the nuclear deal.

Evidently, what is hurting Iran is the current degree of uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump’s continuous threats, as well as the existing bottlenecks in the banking and financing channels. In other words, Tehran’s calculation that the JCPOA would lead to major foreign investments and the creation of needed jobs has not materialized. The Iranian government knows that some of the shortcomings are due to legal, political and structural realities in Iran, but it expects the foreign partners of the JCPOA to work with it to achieve the intended results.

I was interested to read this article as to why the Pompeo appointment appeals to the UAE- he is anti-Iran. I understand the politics of religion but not the politics of pragmatism. Nearly all the moneyed-families in Dubai, mostly traders, have roots in southern Iran. And companies in Ras Al Khaimah (an emirate in the UAE) have many trading initiatives with Iran and even offices there. Moreover. much of the reason Iran survived while sanctions were imposed is that dhows (boats) full of goods (particularly white goods) left from the creek in Bur Dubai to Iran. Where does the UAE really stand?I also received a petition the other day regarding a war on Iran, by Saudi Arabia (with whom the UAE is ostensibly aligned to). It said that a war between the two countries will be next. Will it? it might be. It would aid in ensuring that America is great, again.For an explanation on this relationship, take a read of the article below. Pompeo pick pleases Abu DhabiGiorgio Cafiero March 18, 2018 in Al Monitor, Pulse Article SummaryUnited Arab Emirates officials see a shift at the US State Department in their favor, but are unlikely to see all their hopes realized under Mike Pompeo.REUTERS: US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson (L) is seen in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, March 8, 2018, and CIA Director Mike Pompeo is seen on Capitol Hill in Washington, Feb. 13, 2018.

US President Donald Trump’s decision to replace Secretary of State Rex Tillerson with CIA Director Mike Pompeo came at a time of major foreign policy challenges for Washington. As America’s chief diplomat, Pompeo will have to address several sensitive dilemmas in the Middle East, including the Qatar crisis and Washington’s difficult relations with Turkey and Iran. His nomination is producing optimism in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that America’s positions regarding Doha, Ankara and Tehran will shift in a direction that is more favorable to Abu Dhabi.

Pompeo’s record is staunchly anti-Islamist, which appeals to the UAE. As a US lawmaker, Pompeo co-sponsored the Muslim Brotherhood Terrorist Designation Act of 2015, which identified the movement as a terrorist organization and linked three US-based Islamic groups — the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), the Islamic Society of North America and the North American Islamic Trust — to the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. (The bill did not make it out of committee.) In 2014, the UAE designated CAIR and the Muslim American Society as terrorist organizations, underscoring a narrative that certain Islamic organizations in America have terrorist connections. Ultimately, given Pompeo’s strong opposition to such US-based groups, the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, it is possible that Pompeo will be far less keen than Tillerson to pressure the Saudi/UAE-led bloc to tone down its rhetoric about Qatar’s alleged sponsorship of terrorism and to ease or lift the blockade.

The UAE drives anti-Turkey discourse in Washington. Abu Dhabi’s ambassador to Washington has harshly condemned Ankara’s role in the Middle East, maintaining that most Americans fail to grasp the extent to which Turkey has changed in recent years as well as the “long-term threat it poses to most of us.” Indeed, tensions between Turkey and the UAE have heated up, especially due to Egypt’s internal political developments since 2013, the failed Turkish coup plot of July 15, 2016, (which Turkish officials and various pundits openly accuse the Emiratis of playing a hand in orchestrating and bankrolling with $3 billion) and the multisided Syrian civil war. In Turkey there is a perception that Abu Dhabi is supporting the Kurdistan Workers Party. The UAE opposes Turkey's Operation Olive Branch and Abu Dhabi condemned Turkey’s shooting down of a Russian fighter jet that was flying over northern Syria (and briefly over southern Turkey) in November 2015.

That Pompeo called Turkey and Iran “totalitarian Islamist dictatorships” one day after the failed coup attempt of 2016 in response to the Iranian foreign minister’s tweet expressing solidarity with Turkey’s elected government is not forgotten in Ankara, where Turkish officials view the State Department shake-up with unease. Unquestionably, Tillerson’s recent visit to Ankara was understood as a success in terms of easing tension in the shaky alliance between America and its fellow NATO member. The UAE would most welcome a new secretary of state who is less vested in improving understanding between Washington and Ankara over Turkey’s actions in northern Syria, where the UAE alleges that Ankara’s “neo-Ottoman” foreign policy is a threat to Arab interests.

Pompeo, known as a "hawk’s hawk," has a reputation for hard-line anti-Iran positions. According to Trump’s explanation of his decision to replace Tillerson with Pompeo, differences of opinion on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between the US president and the 69th secretary of state were an important factor. Although it is unclear how Trump and Pompeo will approach questions regarding the JCPOA’s future, and how the two would deal with the question of Iran’s foreign policy in the Arab world if the JCPOA unravels, it is undoubtedly clear that Pompeo’s outlook toward the Islamic Republic will provide more assurance to the Emirati leadership about Washington’s commitment to pushing back against the expansion and consolidation of Iranian influence in the region.

PR and corporate communications recruitment firm VMA Group published a new research report on 19 March (UK time) on "communicating in an integrated world".

To read the full The View report go to: http://www.vmagroup.com/the-view/. But here are some of the key findings.

 New research on corporate communications in an integrated world

by Stuart Bruce

Digital and social media

 

Work in any Arab Gulf country and you have to have a work permit, which entails sponsorship from a prospective employer. In Dubai, if you didn’t work inside a freezone- in other words, if you worked in Dubai proper - you couldn’t just transfer to another job without first obtaining the permission of the existing employer that you could move to another company. That rule only changed about 10 years ago.

 If you are working for a local company, as I was, expect your passport to be retained. I complained and refused to do so; my ID card was taken instead. I rang the British Embassy when I knew my passport was being confiscated (I have British and New Zealand passports with all my Middle East visas in my British passport) and I was told that even though it was illegal to retain someone else’s passport it happens all the time, usually on the part of employers, and there was nothing the Embassy could do about it. How’s that for exerting authority?

With this in mind, I was intrigued to read the attached article about expats only obtaining work permits if an Emirati couldn’t do the job. Nice thought, but I didn’t work with any Emiratis while at Khaleej Times.

Here’s an article that was printed on 14/03/2018 in Dubai-based Khaleej Times

Fintech is an interesting area and lots is happening. This is both with the extranet and intranet. Jakob Nielsen has put together this list of the best intranets to look out for this year and it makes for enlightening reading.

 10 Best Intranets of 2018

by Kara Pernice, Amy Schade, and Patty Caya on January 7, 2018

Topics:

Summary: The winners of our 17th Intranet Design Annual came from smaller organizations, had smaller intranet teams who relied on internal resources and external help to create the best intranets.

The geopolitics of the Middle East are so complicated. The other day I listened to a speech where the speaker maintained that the downfall of the region would be because of a lack of water.

 I don’t concur with this theory. Much of the Middle East has the best technology when it comes to augmenting water supply, mostly to generate desalinated water.

 The problem is that the Middle East has been divided into countries with no respect for tribal allegiances, or differences.

 hen looking up what may happen in the future in the region I came across this article in the journal: “The Cairo Review of Global Affairs”. To view the whole article go to: https://www.thecairoreview.com/essays/dark-geopolitics-of-the-middle-east/

 

The war in Yemen is often a forgotten war in the Middle East. The UN characterizes Yemen as the worst humanitarian catastrophe in the world today.

I follow Yemen because I’ve travelled there. Yes, the group we were traveling with across the Wadi, from Haben to Aden, was kidnapped. Four of the party were shot dead. That was back in 1998.

I know the kidnappers were after Americans but the fact that people were of a different nationality didn’t matter. We were travelling with different tour groups.

This is what The Guardian newspaper said at the time.

“Three British tourists and one Australian were shot dead yesterday at their kidnappers' hide-out in Yemen when security forces stormed the site in a disastrous end to the country's worst hostage crisis.”

Real estate is a favoured asset by many private equity firms, companies more generally and individuals. Gaw Capital is no exception. This is its latest release on a deal it's just done buying 17 shopping centres.

Gaw Capital Partners completed the deal to acquire a retail portfolio comprising 17 shopping centres in Hong Kong from Link REIT

 Gaw Capital Partners today announced that the firm, through a fund under its management, and consortium partners, including Goldman Sachs, have completed the deal to acquire a retail portfolio comprising 17 shopping centres in Hong Kong from Link Real Estate Investment Trust at HK$ 23 billion according to the agreement signed on 28th November 2017.

 Following the deal completion, Gaw Capital Partners’ asset management team will be responsible for overseeing the operation of the 17 shopping malls and car parks from today. The firm will ensure a smooth handover to maintain the service quality.

 Goodwin Gaw, Chairman and Managing Principal of Gaw Capital Partners, said, “We are delighted to complete the deal today. We will utilise our experience and adopt a visionary and creative approach to operate the malls, delivering quality service and refreshing them into modern community hubs for local residents.”

What happens between Israel and Palestine always interests me- especially because I travelled from Palestine to Israel, through the Wall, on the West Bank and got a hard time from the Israelis. And I’m neither Israeli nor Arab.

 The B&B at which I stayed in Bethlehem had intermittent water and electricity. Both came from Israel.

 I always remember one man telling me- a person who had been part of the Peace negotiations at different times-that there will never be Peace between Israel and Palestine. It will always be better for Israel to retain the status quo. They will never give up any territory.

 The article below helps to explain why.

 From Israel Pulse

The Saudis in particular, and the Gulf Arabs in general, know about how to get their businesses thriving. These people are traders, wheelers and dealers, and they know how to get the most out of what they do. They do not think in the Western way, and they often have their own moral code with which Westerners often don’t agree. But their businesses do thrive.

 

With the intention of building 16 nuclear reactors in Saudi Arabia, the key Saudis in the project have hired lawyers to push through the deal with the US government. The deal is explained below. (from the Brooking Institute).

 

 

NZ Super Fund returns 19.8% for 2017 calendar year

The New Zealand Super Fund has performed very well over the past few years and last year was no exception. This is in despite of the fact that the world economy has been slowing over this period. Here are the most recent results.

Comments by Catherine Savage, Chair, and Adrian Orr, Chief Executive of the Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation, at the Finance and Expenditure Select Committee Catherine Savage, the Chair of the Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation, the Crown entity that manages the New Zealand Superannuation Fund, yesterday told the Finance and Expenditure Committee that the Fund's strong performance had continued, with a 19.8% return for the 12 months to December 2017 (after costs, before NZ tax). With the Government resuming contributions in December, the Fund stood at $37.9 billion. It has returned 10.5% p.a. (after costs, before NZ tax) since inception in 2003. In her update to the Committee Ms Savage said the Guardians was in good heart. "The Board is strongly committed to the Fund's long-term, growth-oriented investment strategies, and to its opportunistic approach to active investment." "We remain focused on identifying attractive active investments in New Zealand, with recent highlights including a $100m investment in New Zealand insurer Fidelity Life." "As is appropriate for a long-term investor with known cash flows, the Fund is heavily weighted towards growth assets, such as shares. While growth investments can be volatile over the short term, we can ride out and profit from any future market downturn." "Looking forward, the global economic outlook is better than it has been for several years. However, with many asset classes globally at or above full value, we do not expect annual returns in the teens and twenties to persist." "Returns are likely to normalise and over the long term we expect the Fund will deliver average returns of approximately 8% a year, based on current portfolio settings," said Ms Savage. Mr Orr said leading the Fund for the past 11 years had been a great privilege. "The Fund's successes as an investor can be linked to the anchoring of our investment strategies in our endowments and investment beliefs, and a disciplined approach to active management. Our independent governance, transparency and commitment to investing responsibly have also helped to establish the Guardians as a credible institution, and are acknowledged globally as sector-leading. I'm proud of the team's efforts and what we have achieved together."