There is so much happening in the Middle East I wish I was there. So much material and so many insights. One of the big issues is the ditching of the Iran nuclear deal by the US. What now?. Can it be salvaged by Europe? For some thinking on the future and what might happens, here are some thoughts by staff at Al-Monitor.

Since President Donald Trump fulfilled his campaign promise of breaking the nuclear deal between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany (P5+1), Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has been working to determine whether the deal can still be salvaged.

After visiting China, Zarif, who was Iran’s lead negotiator during the marathon nuclear talks, traveled to Moscow. He called the Russian opposition on the US exit from the nuclear deal “hopeful.” He said he would later travel to Brussels and continue discussions with European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini on “guaranteeing Iran’s interests within" the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Zarif tweeted, “Good and substantive meetings with counterparts in Beijing and Moscow; heading to meet with EU High Representative and E3 foreign ministers in Brussels. Will soon determine how P4+1 can guarantee Iran’s benefits under the JCPOA, and preserve this unique achievement of diplomacy.” Zarif’s reference to the US absence in this round of talks was addressed by calling it the P4+1 rather than the P5+1. E3 in this case stands for France, Germany and the United Kingdom.

Zarif also discussed current events, tying the US decision to move its capital to Jerusalem to a long trend where the United States ignores international consensus and agreements. “Unfortunately, opposition to international agreements and world agreements for the American regime has become normal,” he said in Moscow.

Auckland, 11 May 2018: The NZ Super Fund has added another expansion capital investment to its NZ$38b (US$27b) portfolio, investing US$65m in cloud-based waste and recycling technology company Rubicon Global (www.rubiconglobal.com/).

Headquartered in Atlanta, Rubicon Global ('Rubicon') provides an innovative technology platform for waste and recycling. It connects customers to a network of independent waste haulers and is leading the development of smart city products in the waste and recycling space. The company's goal is to help businesses, governments and organisations confidently execute on their sustainability goals through their waste management operations.

Mark Fennell, the NZ Super Fund's Acting Chief Investment Officer, said Rubicon provided an attractive opportunity for the Fund to increase its exposure to expansion capital.

Following the Rubicon investment, around 2% of the NZ Super Fund is invested in expansion capital investments. The Fund has direct investments in fuel cell manufacturer Bloom Energy, dynamic glass manufacturer View Inc. and waste-to-energy company LanzaTech. In New Zealand the NZ Super Fund has supported a large number of small and medium-sized high growth companies via external managers Direct Capital, Pioneer Capital, Pencarrow, Waterman Capital and Movac. 

Mr. Fennell said: "It's pleasing to be able to leverage our timeframe, scale and diversification to support growth companies such as Rubicon that, while established from a technology point of view, are pre-IPO. As a long-term investor, the NZ Super Fund is able to invest in high growth companies with a view to realising long-term potential. These expansion capital investments are an important part of our investment mix because they can help drive long-run returns."

We can all speculate as to what may happen in the Middle East now that the US has pulled out of the deal designed to prevent Iran developing a nuclear programme.This is what the National Iranian-American Council (NIAC) says about the US pulling out of the Iran deal.

Washington, DC – NIAC President Trita Parsi issued the following statement in response to reports that President Trump declared he would snap back all nuclear-related sanctions under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran nuclear deal, and impose new sanctions:

“Donald Trump has committed what will go down as one of the greatest acts of self-sabotage in America’s modern history. He has put the United States on a path towards war with Iran and may trigger a wider regional war and nuclear arms race.

“This is a crisis of choice. Trump has taken a functioning arms control deal that prevented an Iranian nuclear bomb and turned it into a crisis that can lead to war.

“This is not America first, this is Trump leasing out America’s foreign policy interests to the highest bidder. The only parties applauding this move are Benjamin Netanyahu and Mohammed Bin Salman, who have consistently chosen to undermine regional security to advance their own short-sighted political fortunes. Trump’s reckless decision is a betrayal of the national interests of the United States of America that could haunt us for generations.

The NZ Super Fund confirmed today that it had submitted an unsolicited proposal to the Government offering to assess the viability of the Auckland Light Rail Project for commercial investment.

Acting Chief Executive Matt Whineray said: "The Government has signalled its intention to accelerate core infrastructure investment in a number of areas. We consider the Auckland Light Rail network to be an infrastructure project of sufficient scale and significance to be an attractive prospect for investment. We wish to explore whether a NZ Super Fund-led consortium leveraging our international relationships can fund and deliver the project, on a fully commercial basis."

The NZ Super Fund has identified as its potential partner CDPQ Infra, a wholly owned subsidiary of Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec (CDPQ) responsible for developing and operating infrastructure projects. CDPQ is one of Canada's leading institutional fund managers with USD238.2 billion in net assets, and has extensive experience in infrastructure development and investment globally. CDPQ Infra is responsible for developing, building and operating Montreal's 67-km light rail network. Other members could potentially be added to the consortium.

The NZ Super Fund understands and respects the Government's need to run a procurement process and looks forward to further engagement with the NZ Transport Agency.

In Iran, the robing ceremony of Ahmad Khomeini, the great-grandson of Islamic Republic founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, has stirred some debate about the Shiite clergy. The traditional ceremony where he was given his turban comes against the backdrop of a process in which clerical titles in the country have increasingly come to be driven by political rather than scholarly considerations, with virtually all factions, parties and groups using ranks in the Shiite theological hierarchy for their own political purposes. But has it always been like this in Iran?

Before engaging in the debate on the politicization of clerical titles, it is perhaps best to explain their origins. In broad terms, Shiite clerics fall under five categories: Seqat al-Islam, Hujjat al-Islam, Hujjat-al-Islam wal-Muslemin, Ayatollah and Ayatollah al-Uzma.

Before the reign of the Pahlavi dynasty (1925-1979), titles like Ayatollah or Seqat-al-Islam were used chiefly as honorifics, albeit rarely and only with reference to a limited number of prominent Islamic scholars. For instance, Muhammad ibn Ya'qub al-Kulayni (864-941) was a well-known Shiite scholar and hadith (sayings of the Prophet Muhammad) collector. His important hadith collection Kitab al-Kafi, which is respected by both Sunnis and Shiites, earned him the honorific Seqat al-Islam, which means “Trusted by Islam.” Indeed, to this day, Islamic scholars commonly refer to Kulayni when mentioning the term Seqat al-Islam. There is also the example of Iranian-born Abu Hamid Muhammad ibn Muhammad al-Ghazali, one of the most prominent philosophers, jurists and mystics of Sunni Islam. He was often referred to as Hujjat al-Islam, which means “Proof of Islam.”

From the Qajar era (1794-1925) until the early Pahlavi period, many great scholars and high-ranking clerics in Iran were still referred to with simple titles, including the honorific “Sheikh,” which is used to refer to clerics who are not descendants of the Prophet Muhammad.

In 1921, Sheikh Abdolkarim Haeri Yazdi, a high-ranking teacher in the holy Iraqi city of Karbala who had established a successful seminary in the central Iranian city of Arak, established the Qom Seminary. Known as the “Founder Ayatollah,” he organized seminary affairs, including standardizing courses and ranks. Clerical titles have since gradually been employed to designate scholarly achievements. Of note, the Islamic Republic’s founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, was one of Haeri Yazdi’s students.

In recent months we have seen the Arab Gulf countries getting closer to Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE in particular. This is not surprising. israel, the UAE and Saudi are all anti-Iran, for different reasons. Although Iran is Islamic it is Shi'ite- a brand of Islam that Sunnis- the UAE and Saudi in particular, detest.

Certainly from the UAE, and from Saudi too, you can't telephone Israel directly, they do do business with the each other. In fact, in the UAE I telephoned Israel and sent an email. The telephone rang and rang. At that stage I didn't realise that you couldn't contact Israel. I hear its the same in Saudi.

Given the complex dynamics between the various parties it's surprising that the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, reportedly said to a group of Jewish Americans that it is time the Palestians accepted a peace agreement and that Israel should be entilted to live peacefully in its homeland. This happened in March it was reported. His father, King Salman, has commented that the Saudis stand behind Palestinian, according to a report by Reuters. Here is what he reportedly said.

Reuters Staff

RIYADH (Reuters) - King Salman reiterated Saudi Arabia’s support for a Palestinian state after his son and heir apparent said Israelis were entitled to live peacefully on their own land - a rare statement by an Arab leader.

The war in Yemen is really a war between the Saudi, and the UAE and Yemenis loyal to the current president (or some would say Iran). This article from Brookings Institute discusses what the outcome of a long drawn out war might be.

The killing of a prominent Houthi leader in Yemen by a Saudi airstrike this month has prompted threats of retaliation by the Houthis and other pro-Iranian militants in the region, including threats specifically against Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman (known as MBS). Could that raise new questions about Saudi leadership succession?

By Bruce Riedel, Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, Center for Middle East Policy

Director - The Intelligence Project

BillIsrael is intriguing. We rarely hear about what goes on there, more often hearing about Palestine. What is interesting is the rise of the far right in that country, a phenemonon that the US and the West generally seldom speaks about. In this artice by Al Monitor we learn what is happening.

 Shlomi Eldar April 30, 2018

Article Summary

The far-right Im Tirzu group is behind a hate campaign targeting the US-based New Israel Fund.

The far-right movement Im Tirzu began a smear campaign against the New Israel Fund last week. The timing offers further evidence of the pivotal role Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plays in fanning flames of hate in Israel.

I’m curious as to what is happening in Palestine and the PLO. Not only have I visited the West Bank but I have also spoken with some of the leaders in the organisation. I even had dinner (along with the Gazans) at the home of Munib Masri, who is a key man in Palestine since he owns most of it and has Yasser Arafat’s closest friend.

So with the PLO restructure and is it overdue?

Here’s a take on it from Al Monitor

 Talk of PLO restructuring

 Palestinian council meeting

Refugee Reflections, the newsletter of the Canterbury Refugee Resettlement and Resource Centre (CRRRC) is produced to bring people in the communities up to date with what the CRRRC has been up to. It's an insightful read. Here is some of what the newsletter says.

Refugee Reflections

Annual Regional Refugee Forum 2018

Canterbury Refugee Resettlement & Resource Centre organised its annual regional forum on Thursday the 15th of March which was another outstanding success. This year’s theme was the challenges facing refugee youth, and attendees heard a variety of speakers from the health and academic sectors as well as a panel discussion of articulate and ambitious young people.

In a year which is already proving remarkable for youth both locally and internationally, we were very privileged to hear the voices of refugee youth speaking on issues of concern in a way that bodes extremely well for refugee background communities and for the wider New Zealand society we are all a part of.

A study by Transparency International released in February showed a slip in Israel’s corruption ranking, placing it 34th globally out of 180 countries.

According to the survey, Israel is perceived by local experts as being among the least corrupt countries in the Middle East but among the most corrupt in the developed world.

The 2017 Corruption Perception Index placed Israel 23rd out of 35 OECD nations with a score of 62.In comparison, in 2016 Israel ranked 28th globally with a score of 64, ranking it the 22nd-least corrupt among the OECD.

Although this survey is about corruption rather than democracy the two go hand in hand. There is not only growing apartheid in Israel but there is also an erosion of democracy, as this article by Al Monitor points out.

Battle erupts over Israeli High Court’s independence

So today, Wednesday 18 April is the first day in 30 years that people in Saudi Arabia can go to the cinema. But although the cinema has been banned to the public, those living in compounds, usually ex-pats, have still been able to go to their own set-up. People have also bought pirated DVDs, rather than going to the movies.

That’s true of many people living in Dubai. Although I went to the movies a great deal initially I soon took to watching DVDs at home, by preference. When I watched “The Wolf of Wall Street” at the cinema I wondered why it seemed so short. When I watched the movie again, probably in the UK, it was so much longer. One hour had been cut out of it.

 Let’s hope that doesn’t happen in Saudi Arabia where censorship laws are bound to prevail.

 Here’s an article about cinemas in Saudi Arabia in Khaleej Times, a Dubai-based national newspaper, for which I used to work.

 AMC Entertainment has been granted the first licence to operate cinemas.

I read this article with interest since it explains Saudi policy - and with it the policy of countries like the UAE. The Gulf countries are certainly anti- Iran, despite the fact that nearly all the trading families in the UAE are from southern Iran. And that companies in the emirate Ras Al Khaimah do a lot of business with their closest neighbour.

 The Gulf countries like to be anti Iran but all, especially the UAE, do its best to stay on good terms with it.

 Being anti-Iran means being pro-Trump. This is best illustrated in Dubai with the Trump Estates by Damac Properties, the largest private property developer in the Middle East. The Trump Estates is described this way: “DAMAC Hills is an exclusive gated community perched on a private island amidst the lush greens and fairways of the Trump International Golf Club Dubai.”

Article summary

In response to a growing rift between Riyadh's regional policies and some actions by President Donald Trump, King Salman has reaffirmed long-held alliances while distancing the kingdom from Washington.

The rift between Qatar and Saudi Arabia and the UAE has not yet been resolved. On the surface, it doesn’t appear to have moved it all. But according to this article from Al Monitor there are signs that the rift might be reducing. It’s even suggested that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are not as close as they once were.

Qatar hires Trump-linked lobbyist ahead of emir’s visit

By Bryant Harris

 Article Summary

Doha is turning to well-connected Republican operatives amid an intra-Gulf spat.

What will happen when the war in Syria ends is finally being discussed, as this article by Al Monitor shows. This has happened before. Back in 2013 there has a meeting by the Western allies in Dubai to discuss investment opportunities in post-war Syria. I was told that Assad would step down soon. What a waste of time that was.

At least the three countries- Turkey, Iran and Russia- seem to be more realistic as to what will happen post war, even if they have different end goals.

 Ankara summit focuses on Syria's fate once war ends

Maxim A. Suchkov April 6, 2018

Article Summary

It's been a week since I wrote something for this blog. I've been shifting house and all that entails- what a performance. I've also managed to put out one press release, on a new data company in New Zealand that focuses on insurance. The release is attached with a few bits added, such as the exciting times had by the executives in Las Vegas.

Press Release

 Vallum on road to international expansion

 26 March 2018, New Zealand New Zealand InsurTech start-up, Vallum, was one of 25 international early-stage businesses chosen to pitch at the Global InsurTech Roadshow, which was held in Frankfurt, Germany earlier this month.

 The prestigious Goethe Business School organised the event in cooperation with InsurTech Asia.

The animosity between Israelis and Palestinians is ongoing, but it is not until you’ve been do you understand how much tension there is. That’s what I think. And I’m neither Israeli nor Palestinian.

I was travelling into Palestine over the Allenby Crossing, from Jordan, with a group of Palestinians. We waited at the border crossing for about eight hours, while the Israeli guards played ball games, and played around generally.

These people were horrible to everyone, including me, until they saw I had a New Zealand passport and then they were so nice. What a change in attitude. I was told by a British lawyer that he had had a similar experience at Tel Aviv airport. Since he was English he was allowed into the country but a colleague from the same law firm- a Palestian-British man- was detained in jail overnight. Evidently, he’s had that experience many times when visiting family.

I had many experiences on that trip, one of them being witness to everyone standing up when Mahmoud Abbas took the stage. That was at a conference in Bethelem.

With this in mind, I read the article below with interest. It makes sense when I recall a Palestinian, who had been involved in peace talks, who said there would never be a negotiated peace with Israel, since the “status quo” will always be better for the Israelis.

Continuing on the “Bolton” theme I’m posting an article that appeared in Al Monitor magazine. So its not just parts of the Middle East who are worried about the impact of the appointment of John Bolton – of course the UAE and Saudi Arabia agree with the appointment- but Russia too is concerned about the consequences- that the Iran deal won’t hold and there will be war in the Middle East 9as if the West doesn’t interfere enough in the Middle East).

 No doubt if Iran is attacked it will be disastrous for not only Iran but for Syria too.

 We can only wait and see what happens but it looks as if the outcome is not going to be good for the region and the rest of the world.

MOSCOW — Hours after US President Donald Trump announced that H.R. McMaster had departed as national security adviser and would be replaced by John Bolton — a longtime detractor of Iran, Iraq, Russia and North Korea, among others — Russia was among the first to react to the news.

Though some Russian officials reacted cautiously and expressed a willingness to work with Washington regardless of who Trump puts into key foreign policy posts, others made it clear that Moscow is genuinely concerned by the course American foreign policy has taken in recent months. Bolton, who was named to the position March 22 — near the 15th anniversary of the start of the US campaign in Iraq — advocated for that war and still does. It's an understatement to say he is seen as a controversial figure.

I read this petition from NIAC with interest, because it explains why Trump picked John Bolton as national security adviser. Whether the argument is believable or not, it is at least an Iranian perspective, something that is largely lacking.

Washington, DC - Trita Parsi, President of the National Iranian American Council, issued the following statement regarding the appointment of John Bolton as National Security Advisor:

“Donald Trump may have just effectively declared war on Iran. With the appointment of John Bolton, and nomination of Mike Pompeo at State, Trump is clearly putting together a war cabinet. As the world awaits Trump’s May 12 decision as to whether he will abandon the Iran nuclear deal, all of the signs now point to a decision to move to war footing.

“Bolton is an unhinged advocate for waging World War III. He has explicitly called for bombing Iran for the past ten years and has suggested the U.S. engage in nuclear first strikes in North Korea. Bolton’s first order of business will be to convince Trump to exit the Iran nuclear deal and lay the groundwork for the war he has urged over the past decade. Additionally, he has has called for ending all visas for Iranians, shipping bunker busting weapons to Israel, and supporting the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) terrorist organization and other separatist groups inside of Iran. The Iranian-American community and our pro-peace, pro-human rights allies will organize to stop Bolton’s plans from becoming a reality.

US President, Donald Trump, caused chaos in the world economy when he announced that the US would impose 25 per cent tariffs on steel imports and 10 per cent on aluminium imports on the grounds of "national security". There are fears that this move will trigger a trade war, particularly with parties such as China, the country's 10th largest importer of steel.

According to a report from Reuters, the US is the world's largest steel importing nation, buying 35.6 million tonnes of the building raw material in 2017. Canada is the largest importer of these products to the US, followed by Brazil. Mexico comes 4th and China is only 10th.  Canada and Mexico have already won exemptions from the tariffs, on the grounds that they are key allies and are therefore essential to the US' military security.

The UAE is also seeking an exemption, based on national security concerns. The UAE is the country's third biggest exporter of aluminium products.

New Zealand is considering seeking an exemption too, although aluminium products constitute only a tiny percentage of business to the US - NZD 23 million in total.

Consequently, New Zealand doesn't constitute a threat to the US so should be spared from any tariffs, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said.