US president, Joe Biden's visit to the Middle East is against a backdrop of the failure to revive the nuclear agreement with Iran. Ahmad Abdul-Rahman writes.
Despite renewed nuclear talks in Vienna that started taking place more than a year ago, a return to the nuclear deal is no longer in sight. The Iranian regime has increased the frequency of its violations of the agreement, making it more difficult for all parties to reach an understanding. The coming weeks will be crucial because at this stage the Arab countries and world powers, as well as Israel, will have to prepare for a reality in which there is no nuclear agreement. The first indication of this is the US President Joe Biden's tour of the Middle East this month, during which he will visit Saudi Arabia and Israel. Both sides view Iran as a threat to their interests, hence the two countries are now collaborating.
Iran's recent actions are forcing the US and European countries to create a policy of a no-deal and unchecked progress on Iran's nuclear programme. However, there are provisions in the nuclear deal that Iran must consider. One of the partners to the agreement (not the US which withdrew from it) can notify the Security Council that Iran is in violation of the agreement, and that the renewal of Security Council sanctions cited in Resolution 2231 is necessary. No country has a veto over that Security Council resolution.
Biden is looking at the countries in the Middle East more favourably than the US did before. Perhaps this change in approach towards the Middle East is because of the deteriorating international situation, especially the ongoing war in Ukraine, with its political and economic ramifications for the rest of the world. As such, the US has an open door to improving relations with countries in the region. However, it is still too early to say whether this reflects a change in the Biden administration's policy in terms of its willingness and ability to invest resources and re-engage in the Middle East.
In anticipation of the possible escalation of the scenario of the complexity of reaching an agreement between Washington and Tehran, Israel will focus on reaching understandings with the US and European partners for nuclear talks on future scenarios. Despite recent political uncertainty, Israel will hold its fifth elections in three years after the collapse of its fragile coalition government. However, Biden's expected visit to Israel will confirm the US's commitment to Israel's security, particularly with Iran, and the declaration of their agreement to confront Iran's nuclear violations.
While the Biden administration remains publicly committed to negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran, it is sure to have a "Plan B," if talks fail during Biden's meetings with Israel. The US has led initiatives to enhance regional deterrence. In light of the expectation that the outgoing Prime Minister Naftali Bennett will work unofficially as a minister of the interim government responsible for the portfolio of Iran, there is a strong likelihood his security policy towards Tehran will continue.
The shadow war between Iran and Israel is well known. Tehran believes that officials in Tel Aviv were behind several assassinations of Iranian scientists and members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. It can be argued that the shadow war between the two sides broke out during the tenure of former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. However, the policy of former PM Bennett, expanded to include targeting scientists and other officers responsible for missile and drone programmes, as well as members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force.
It is expected that as any prospects for a new nuclear agreement between Iran and the US diminish, and as Iran is subject to US and Western sanctions, it will gravitate more towards China, Russia and Venezuela and Iran's sales of oil to China, will increase. It is also expected that Biden will seek to revive US-Gulf and US-Israeli relations during his tour of the Middle East.
The Gulf States' will attempt to contain Iran. But with the recurrence of the shadow war between Israel and Iran and perhaps the US-European escalation of discord towards Iran, there is only a weak possibility that it will be subdued. Moreover, the effects of the Ukraine war on the European energy market has increased the desire to diversify energy sources. .What is also certain is that regional tensions will continue .